Real consumer spending in Russia has almost stopped growing, with card data showing it back at last year's level by mid-October, Kommersant reported on October 28.

Inflation-adjusted spending was 0.03% lower year on year in the week of October 12-18 and 0.3% higher in the week of October 19-25, according to SberIndex data compiled from Sber card transactions. In the last full week of September, September 21-27, it was still up 2.2% y/y.

Household consumption has been the Russian economy's most stable growth driver for two years. With industrial output falling in August and GDP up just 0.8% y/y that month, a stall in consumer demand leaves the economy with little left pulling it forward.

Over September as a whole, real consumer spending rose 2.9% y/y according to Alfa-Bank estimates and 4.3% according to SberIndex. Alfa-Bank analysts saw demand for non-food goods gradually slowing, while spending on services and restaurants grew well below its 2021-2026 average.

Alfa-Bank expects the annual growth of private demand to slow further in the fourth quarter, mainly because of non-food goods and cars in particular, where strong sales in late 2025 make for a tough comparison. New passenger car sales in September only matched last year's level after a 7% drop in August. Higher fuel prices and a weaker ruble will push up prices and cut discounts, limiting real purchases, according to the bank.

Unsecured consumer lending kept growing after seasonal adjustment, according to Raiffeisenbank calculations based on central bank data, helped by rising incomes. Raiffeisenbank expects tighter central bank limits on long consumer loans and on lending to borrowers whose debt payments exceed half their income, in force since October 1, to slow that growth.

Russian retail sales, total, food and non-food, % change y/y, January 2025-August 2026. Source: Rosstat via IntelliNews Lambda

Official retail sales growth slowed to 3.3% y/y in August from 7.8% in May, according to Rosstat data. Non-food sales growth more than halved over the same months, from 11.3% to 4.1%, while food sales growth eased to 2.3%.

Incomes are still rising, but more slowly. Nominal wages were up 10.3% y/y in July, according to Rosstat, while consumer price inflation stood at 6% that month and 6.3% in August. Real wage growth had already slowed to 3.4% in June from 8.6% in January-February.

Businesses are cutting back too. Bookings of domestic business flights fell 10.5% y/y in the first nine months of 2026 and international business bookings 6%, according to travel management company Aeroclub, even though the average one-way domestic economy fare rose 10.5% to RUB18,400 ($228), Kommersant reported in a separate article. International fares rose 4% to RUB40,000 ($497).

HR agency A2 expects business travel to stay at a minimum into the first half of 2027. Households face more pressure next year, as the draft 2027 budget leans on new taxes on savings and higher utility tariffs.