Iran’s oil exports have bounced back to surpass pre-war levels, data from analytics firm Kpler show, as regional producers have scaled back production due to difficulties exporting the commodity through the Strait of Hormuz in the Persian Gulf.

According to Kpler, since the outbreak of the US-Israeli war against Iran on February 28, nine tankers have loaded Iranian oil and departed the Persian Gulf, mostly heading towards China, which has been identified by tracking firms as the main buyer of Iranian barrels over the past few years.

Data indicate that tankers have been loading an average of 2.1mn barrels of Iranian crude oil per day, exceeding Iran’s daily exports of 2mn barrels in early February and before the conflict began.

At least 13.7mn barrels of Iranian oil have made their way from the narrow waterway to China since the start of the war, according to figures obtained from ship-tracking companies, Tasnim News Agency wrote on March 12.

While major shipping companies have halted operations in the region, tankers linked to Iran continue to sail through the strait.

The increase in Iranian oil loadings comes despite vessels being hesitant to brazenly navigate the Strait of Hormuz, an artery through which 20% of the world’s oil passes.

Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) has targeted at least 15 vessels since the start of the conflict for ignoring warnings about the waterway’s closure.

The IRGC says passage through the strait is unsafe due to crossfire between parties involved in the conflict. Iran is exporting more oil than it did before the war, demonstrating that Tehran maintains control over this strategic waterway.

Meanwhile, Persian Gulf oil producers, ranging from Saudi Arabia to Iraq, have reduced their output and are trying to find alternative routes other than the Strait of Hormuz.

Disruptions to oil flow in the strait have led to a sudden surge in prices, with oil fluctuating between $80 and $120 per barrel during wartime, now hovering around $100 per barrel.

Market intelligence firm IIR Energy announced that nearly 1.9mn barrels per day (bpd) of crude oil refining capacity in the Persian Gulf had been shut down due to the conflict and disruptions to oil shipments passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

According to the industry monitor, the idle refining capacity includes production fluctuations in Bahrain, Iraq, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the United Arab Emirates.

Furthermore, according to a report by JP Morgan, if the Strait of Hormuz were to be blocked for two weeks, the Persian Gulf’s oil supply could fall to around 3.8mn bpd.