Romania’s trade deficit in goods contracted by 15% y/y to €2.33bn in January, as imports (-7.7% y/y) continued to fall faster than exports (-4.7% y/y), according to data published by the statistics office INS. For nine consecutive months, Romania’s exports have performed comparatively better than imports, resulting in a gradual narrowing of the trade deficit, which nevertheless remained significant at 8.7% of GDP in 2025 after peaking at 9.9% in April 2025.

The rolling 12-month trade deficit to January (chart) declined by 5.5% y/y to €32.32bn and likely edged down from the 8.7% of GDP calculated in December (chart) — the lowest level since April 2021. The narrowing of the deficit, which already bettered the official expectations at the end of 2025, is likely to continue under the pressure of subdued domestic demand for consumption and the possible stabilisation (or moderate recovery) in industry. However, higher oil and gas prices could have the opposite effect.

Romania’s exports dropped by 4.7% y/y to €6.9bn in January, bringing the rolling 12-month export value to €96.3bn, up 3.7% y/y. The 12-month export-to-GDP ratio likely declined slightly from the 25.5% recorded in December, a ratio that indicates modest foreign trade activity. The ratio stood at 25.7% at the end of 2024. Over the past decade, the highest performance was nearly 33% in 2022 -- when the commodity prices were comparatively very high.

Imports contracted by 7.7% y/y to €9.23bn in January, marking the sharpest annual decline since September 2023. The rolling imports over the 12 months to January increased by 1.2% y/y to €128.6bn. The 12-month import-to-GDP ratio likely fell from 34.2% in December, compared with 35.7% a year earlier at the end of 2024. Toward the end of 2022, the ratio peaked close to 45%.