Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov on February 10 in a shock move fired national security chief Kamchybek Tashiyev, the tough-talking politician widely regarded as his “co-ruler”. Analysts have long speculated that Tashiyev has his eyes on claiming the presidency for himself.

Sources close to Tashiyev told RFE/RL's Kyrgyz Service that he"heard this news while receiving medical treatment" in Munich and claimed the dismissal "was completely unexpected".

The dismissal by presidential decree of the 57-year-old security services boss and dismantling of his power tandem with Japarov comes two months after bne IntelliNews reported how freelance journalist and Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center analyst Galiya Ibragimova concluded in a commentary that there was growing unease between the country’s two most powerful men, Japarov and Tashiyev.

Tashiyev, also dismissed from his post as deputy chair of the cabinet of ministers, is a figure who claims to have eliminated all organised crime groups in the Central Asian country of 7.4mn and to whom Japarov, also 57 years-old, is indebted for much of his rise five years ago to the presidency.

Tashiyev, unofficially dubbed the “people’s general”, has to date maintained public support for Japarov and his expected bid to win a second presidential term in an election scheduled for January 2027.

“At the same time,” observed Ibragimova in her commentary, “he is rapidly expanding his own authority, which is now starting to exceed that of the president at times. In Kyrgyz politics, which is so personalized, this has inevitably sparked rumors that the country’s top security official may have presidential ambitions of his own, and even speculation that the upcoming parliamentary elections [which took place at the end of November] could be a rehearsal for a power struggle between Japarov and Tashiyev.”

Tashiyev, who like Japarov started his political career in a nationalist movement, was under national security changes announced by the president removed from his position as chairman of the State Committee for National Security (SCNS, or GKNB). Jumgalbek Shabdanbekov, a 56-year-old former deputy chair of the GKNB, has replaced him in an acting capacity.

Other changes ordered by Japarov make the national guard service subordinate to the presidency rather than the GKNB and make the border service, previously under the jurisdiction of the GKNB, an independent entity.

Azattyk Asia quoted presidential spokesman Askat Alagozov as saying that Japarov decided on the dismissal of Tashiyev and three of his deputies in “an attempt to strengthen unity between state structures”.

A colourful no-nonsense figure, known for browbeating junior officials in public and arresting officials accused of corruption after inviting them to public meetings, Tashiyev was said by an RFE/RL source to have arrived in Germany for a medical examination on February 6.

Civil activist Mavlyan Askarbekov told the media outlet: "Tashiyev also has his own major plans and is thinking ahead. I believe Tashiyev understands that in the upcoming election, if he wants to be president, now is his chance; otherwise, it may never happen."

This publication on February 9 reported on how this week saw a petition for Kyrgyzstan to hold a snap presidential election submitted to Japarov and the Speaker of the Zhogorku Kenesh (parliament) Nurlanbek Turgunbek uulu.

The signatories are several former prime ministers and MPs, as well as other political figures, scientists, entrepreneurs and public figures. They have pointed to various problems that they say are hindering Kyrgyzstan's further development, including a growing public debt, said to be approaching $9bn, the rising costs of living and escalating poverty. They added that an election is necessary to move the country to the "second stage" of development.

It is unclear if the petition is connected to events relating to Tashiyev.

Japarov, often under fire for authoritarianism that has included destructive policies aimed at independent media titles, no doubt wishes to ensure control over key institutions ahead of his run for re-election.

The president may be wary of just how much of an informal power base, Tashiyev, the muscle of his administration, has built up. After all, this is the man who a year ago rowed back on comments that he took a decision to eliminate the country’s most notorious organised crime boss – mobster Kamchybek Kolbayev was in October 2023 shot dead in Bishkek’s Blonder Pub by a special GKNB Alfa unit. The unit claimed it came under fire first.

As Peter Leonard on February wrote in his Havli blog: “Under Tashiyev’s watch, the GKNB has evolved from a quiet but omnipresent instrument of coercion into something more formidable.”

He added: “Under his leadership, the GKNB expanded dramatically in size, visibility, and resources.

“Large sums of money, whose provenance was rarely explained, were channelled into new security service buildings across the country.

“Conditions for rank-and-file officers improved markedly.

“Tashiyev routinely appeared in person at the opening of new headquarters, taking visible satisfaction in handing over apartments to officers who formally served at the president’s pleasure, but who in practice may have owed greater loyalty to the man who promoted, housed, and rewarded them.

“All of which lends Tashiyev’s removal the weight of something a little beyond routine personnel rotation...”

Political scientist Emilbek Joroev shared some thoughts on his Facebook page, writing: “"Tashiyev's dismissal was imminent and expected. As the elections approach, the issue of the [length of the] election term, disputed within the framework of the Constitution, accelerated the decision even more. However, sooner or later, such a decision would have to take place.

“No matter how strong the friendship between two friends is, in politics – especially in such high-level politics – the tandem has its own term, not long, but short, as is customary.

“A tandem that has exceeded five years is a very long, strong tandem. From now on, all sorts of options are open and possible. Unfortunately, it is unlikely that the friendship will remain friendship. However, this is an objective political phenomenon, and there is no need to be sad about it. The main thing is that both sides must responsibly, taking into account various risks, consistently and constructively move beyond this episode.

“They must be primarily interested in firmly maintaining the stability that they themselves – precisely with the strength of the tandem of these two – have established and achieved."