The Central Bank of Russia (CBR) is expected to keep its key interest rate unchanged at 16% at its first policy board meeting of 2026 on February 13, according to consensus expectations of analysts surveyed by RBC business portal.

This would mark a potential pause in the monetary easing cycle that began in June 2025.

As closely followed by bne IntelliNews, inflation is in focus ahead of the CBR's interest rate decision on February 13. 

While the CBR managed to curb inflation below 6% in 2025, the regulator is expected to pause the monetary easing and keep the key interest rate unchanged at 16% due to a spike in inflation seen in the beginning of 2026.

The CBR resolved to cut the key interest rate by 50 basis points (bp) to 16% at the policy board meeting on December 19.

Out of 30 analysts surveyed by RBC, 24 expect the CBR to maintain the rate at the upcoming meeting, while six forecast a 50 basis point (bp) cut to 15.5%. 

RBC also points out that if the majority view holds, it would mark the regulator’s first pause after five consecutive rate cuts in 2H25. 

Senior central bankers have recently signalled that the rate might stay unchanged in February. CBR Governor Elvira Nabiullina had previously warned that inflationary risks may require pauses in easing, and Deputy Governor Alexei Zabotkin later noted that “a 50bp change won’t shift the picture, [it is] the trajectory is what matters,” as cited by RBC.

In line with detailed bne IntelliNews coverage, the analysts surveyed by RBC cite two main reasons for a pause: accelerating inflation due to a VAT hike from 20% to 22% on January 1, and rising inflation expectations among both consumers and businesses. 

Further pro-inflationary risks include a weakening ruble, lower oil prices, and uncertainty over Russian crude exports to India. The CBR would also weigh credit dynamics and the labour market, where demand remains strong, and wage growth continues to accelerate.

However, a minority of analysts still expect a rate cut this week, pointing to subdued business activity, labour market cooling, and fading VAT effects as grounds for easing. 

Renaissance Capital also expects the CBR to hold at 16% in February, with the regulator “signalling a possible resumption of cuts at one of the upcoming meetings.” 

Analysts at RenCap noted that while inflation surged in January, much of it was driven by seasonal food price volatility, and that "a more complete inflation picture will only emerge after the [CBR key rate] decision." 

Renaissance Capital added: “The need for a clearer picture of underlying inflation dynamics is the main argument for a pause.”

Looking ahead, most analysts expect the easing cycle to resume in March if inflation begins to stabilise. Renaissance Capital forecasts a gradual decline in the key rate to 12-13% by end-2026, provided inflationary expectations recede and underlying inflation returns to target range.