The National Bank of Moldova (BNM) has revised upwards its inflation forecast, expecting annual inflation to peak at 8.6% in the fourth quarter of 2026, compared with a previous projection of 5.0% issued in February.

A year earlier, the central bank had forecast inflation of 4.0% for the same period.

“The annual inflation rate over the forecast period will peak at 8.6% in Q4 2026 and will ease to 4.1% in Q4 2027 and Q1 2028,” the BNM said in its updated Inflation Report.

According to the central bank, the upward revision mainly reflects higher expected prices for food, fuels and regulated utility tariffs, as well as the impact of the conflict in the Middle East on international markets.

The BNM warned earlier this month that inflation would likely exceed the upper limit of its target corridor of 5% ±1.5 percentage points in the coming quarters.

In response to accelerating price growth, the central bank raised its policy rate (chart) from 5.0% to 6.5% in May.

Annual inflation in Moldova accelerated to 5.8% in March, up by 0.75 percentage points compared with the previous month, according to BNM data.

Moldovan Minister of Economy Eugen Osmochescu previously said inflation could return to double-digit levels by the end of the year, Logos Pres reported.

The central bank nevertheless expects inflationary pressures to begin easing from early 2027, with annual inflation projected to slow to 7.9% in the first quarter of 2027 and further to 4.1% by the fourth quarter.

Economist Vladimir Golovatiuc questioned whether the revised projections fully capture current inflationary pressures.

“Taking into account how the BNM’s previous inflation forecasts were made, as well as the recent statement by the Moldovan minister of economy on the doubling of inflation, it seems that the current projections will be exceeded,” Golovatiuc said.

He added that annual inflation may already have reached 6.8% in May 2026.

Moldova previously experienced a sharp inflation surge in 2022, when annual inflation peaked at 34.6% year-on-year in October amid soaring natural gas and electricity prices following the regional energy crisis.