Sharp increases in fuel and vegetable prices pushed Moldova’s annual inflation rate (chart) to 6.8% in April from 5.8% in March, according to data published by the statistics bureau BNS.

The acceleration in inflation supports the National Bank of Moldova’s (BNM) decision earlier this month to raise its policy rate by 1.5 percentage points (pp) to 6.5%, marking a shift toward a more hawkish monetary stance.

Fuel prices rose by 9.2% month-on-month in April, while vegetable prices surged by 16.7%. Together, the two categories contributed around 1.2 percentage points (0.6pp each) to the monthly inflation rate of 1.8%.

Compared to April 2025, both fuel and vegetable prices were approximately 24%-25% higher, according to BNS data, suggesting that the increase in food prices cannot be explained solely by seasonal factors.

Food prices overall increased by 6.3% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month. Non-food prices, including fuels, advanced by 7.1% year-on-year and 2.0% month-on-month, while services prices, which include energy-related components, rose by 6.9% year-on-year and 1.4% from March.

Separately, BNM revised its inflation forecasts upward compared to its February projection round, now expecting average inflation of 7.0% in 2026 and 5.8% in 2027.

Economic analyst Marin Gospodarenco, cited by NewsMaker, warned that recent increases in fuel prices are likely to continue feeding inflationary pressures throughout the summer.

“The peak of inflation will be in June-August, somewhere at 7.5%-8.0%, after which things should gradually calm down towards autumn,” Gospodarenco said.

He noted that diesel prices had increased by 68% and gasoline prices by 29% over recent weeks, triggering broader price increases across the economy.

Gospodarenco also warned borrowers with variable-rate loans to expect higher monthly repayments as monetary conditions tighten.

IDIS Viitorul expert Veaceslav Ioniță forecast inflation of 7%-9% this year, citing food and energy prices, fertiliser costs and possible utility tariff adjustments among the main risks.