Iran's 88-member Assembly of Experts met in an undisclosed location on March 4 to deliberate over the selection of a new supreme leader, with the late Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's son Mojtaba emerging as the clear front-runner despite concerns that naming him could make him a target for the US and Israel.

Officials said clerics were considering announcing Mojtaba Khamenei, the second son of the former Supreme Leader, as his father's successor as early as the morning of March 5.

Many people within the system have said for several weeks that Mojtaba who resembles his father, was effectively in control of operations prior to Ali’s death by a US airstrike on his house in Tehran on February 28.

The process has been complicated by the fact that the Assembly of Experts' office in Qom was struck by an airstrike on March 3, reportedly during a session convened for electoral purposes. It’s not known how many clerics are alive from that session, no figures have been announced.

Mojtaba Khamenei, 57, has never held public office but has wielded vast influence within the Islamic Republic's power structure for decades in the shadows. He has cultivated deep ties to the IRGC and in 2009 assumed control of the Basij militia, which were heavily used in the recent uprisings that left several thousand people dead.

His mother, wife and one of his sisters were killed alongside the late supreme leader in the February 28 strikes on Tehran, but Mojtaba was reportedly not present at the compound and has survived the intense bombing campaign, Iranian and Qatari media noted.

His potential appointment carries significant political risk, as one analyst speaking with IntelliNews noted, it could potentially upset other factions within the system including those led by the Khomeini family, with the grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder being increasingly present in recent months.

The Islamic Republic has long criticised hereditary rule as a hallmark of the Pahlavi monarchy it overthrew in 1979. Khamenei himself had reportedly indicated opposition to a father-to-son succession, officially, however the process has been upended by the repeated strikes across the country in recent days which has knocked out many other competitors. Ali Asghar Hejazi, whom Israel said it killed in the strikes, was one of those. While those potentially still in a with a shot include Chief Justice Gholam-Hossein Mohseni-Ejei; and Hassan Khomeini.

Mohseni-Ejei, who sits on the interim Leadership Council, is considered the narrow front-runner on the Polymarket prediction platform at roughly 18%, followed by Arafi and Hassan Khomeini. The possibility that the position could be abolished entirely is also being priced in by traders.

Alireza Arafi, who was appointed to the interim Leadership Council on March 1, serves as deputy chairman of the Assembly of Experts and heads Iran's seminary system. Alex Vatanka of the Middle East Institute said Khamenei had demonstrated "a great deal of confidence in his bureaucratic abilities" by placing Arafi in senior positions, though he was not considered a political heavyweight.

Hassan Khomeini, who carries the revolutionary legitimacy of the founding family's name, has been described as a more moderate figure. He reportedly commands respect among the IRGC and senior clerics and could represent a less confrontational Iran.

The IRGC is expected to exercise significant influence over the selection, given its central role in defending the Islamic Republic during the ongoing conflict. Former CIA Director David Petraeus cautioned that there is no alternative force waiting to take power in Iran, while analysts warned the succession could be prolonged as the Assembly of Experts weighs security risks alongside political considerations.

Ayatollah Ahmad Khatami, a member of the Assembly of Experts, told state television on March 4 that "the options have become clear," with other senior officials signalling a decision could be imminent.

US President Donald Trump has claimed the strikes "knocked out most of the candidates" and that "second or third place is dead," though the main contenders appear to have survived.