A ballistic missile fired ​from Iran and on course for Turkish airspace was ​destroyed by Nato air and missile defence ⁠systems in ​the Eastern Mediterranean Sea, ​the Turkish Defence Ministry said on March 4.

The missile had travelled through Iraqi and Syrian airspace. The interception is the first recorded incidence of an Iranian weapon posing a threat to Turkey since the Middle East conflict began on February 28 with massive Israeli and US strikes on Iran. Any possibility that the missile might have flown off course and was not actually targeted at Turkey was not addressed by the statement from Turkish defence officials. However, as speculation grew, a Turkish official, speaking to AFP on condition of anonymity, said that the missile had been "aimed at a base in Greek Cyprus but veered off course".

Turkey also responded to the missile encounter by restating its sovereign ​right ​to ⁠respond to any hostile actions ​against it and warned ​parties ⁠to refrain from steps that could ⁠escalate ​the conflict.

As well as attacking American and Israeli targets since hostilities began, Iran has directed missiles and “kamikaze” drones at targets across Arab Gulf states that are allies of the US. It is widely thought that Iran has not attacked targets in Turkey since the conflict ignited because Ankara was vocal in attempting to dissuade US President Donald Trump from entering into a war with Iran and remains strongly committed in diplomacy to securing a halt to military exchanges as soon as possible.

On March 2, Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan warned that the consequences of not intervening to stop the conflict could produce a period in the Middle East and wider world that “nobody can handle”.

On March 3, Turkey’s foreign minister Hakan Fidan stated that Iran’s indiscriminate attacks on Arab countries amounted to an “incredibly wrong strategy” that increased regional instability.

Turkey's top diplomat has warned that the Iranian strategy of "If I drown, I'll drown the region as well" is unlikely to change minds about the conflict in the US Trump administration (Credit: Official handout).

The Iranians, he told Turkish state broadcaster TRT Haber, were taking the approach of “If I drown, I’ll drown the region as well”, hoping to bring an end to the conflict by raising the costs for neighbours. However, said Fidan, it was unlikely the US would back down in the face of such a strategy.

Turkey, claimed Fidan, succeeded in delaying the outbreak of the war with previously diplomacy directed at the Trump administration.

As a Nato member, Turkey jointly runs Incirlik Air Base, in Adana Province in southern Turkey, with the US. It is thought that around 1,000 American military personnel are stationed there. Also in Turkey is Kurecik radar base, in the Eastern Anatolian province of Malatya, operated by Nato. In June last year, as Israel and the US mounted their first joint strikes on Iran, Ankara denied that Kurecik feeds Israel data on incoming missiles. bne IntelliNews reported on the episode.

The Turkish defence officials addressing the shooting down of the missile earlier today confirmed that debris from the interceptor munition used to take down the missile in a “timely” intervention fell in Dortyol district of Turkey’s southernmost province Hatay, bordering northeastern Syria. No injuries were recorded.

Reports from Shafaq News and North Press Agency indicated the missile was intercepted across the border over Qamishli in Syria.

Another consideration as regards any Iranian military strike on Turkey is that, as a Nato member, Turkey is entitled to ask all other Nato members to come to its defence if it suffers an attack on its territory. The Nato Article 5 principle is that an attack on one of its members is seen as an attack on all its members.

Turkey has the second largest land forces in Nato after the US.

Following the shooting down of the missile, Nato spokesperson Allison Hart said in a statement: "We condemn Iran’s targeting of Turkey. Nato stands firmly with all allies, including Turkey, as Iran continues its indiscriminate attacks across the region. Our deterrence and defence posture remains strong across all domains, including when it comes to air and missile defence."

Middle Eastern affairs writer and journalist Bulent Sahin Erdir was on March 4 quoted by The New Arab as saying that Turkey "did not allow the use of its bases or airspace in attacks against Iran, and Tehran's missile response, within its defensive doctrine, targeted countries that assisted or encouraged the United States to launch attacks against it, and Turkey does not fall within this scope".

He also noted: "Turkey has gained experience in dealing with migration waves due to Syrian refugees, and if a similar influx occurs from Iran, temporary shelters would be established in eastern Turkey. Turkey's deteriorating economic situation makes it unable to absorb another wave of migrants after the Syrians [who arrived during the prolonged Syrian conflict that broke out in 2011]. Therefore, the Ankara government would take measures to prevent migrants from eastern Anatolia from reaching central Anatolia and Istanbul."