Sub-Saharan Africa’s urban population is projected to grow by another 748mn people to approximately 1.7bn by 2050, but inadequate infrastructure, weak planning and limited investment threaten the region’s ability to create enough jobs for its rapidly expanding workforce, the World Bank warned on October 29.

The bank’s Sub-Saharan Africa’s Urban Awakening: Catalyzing Economic Growth and Job Creation report estimates that 913mn people lived in urban settlements in 2025, up from 170mn in 1975. Around 15mn young people enter regional labour markets annually, requiring substantial job creation to absorb the expanding workforce.

The 913mn estimate is considerably higher than the World Bank’s standard urban-population series, which put the figure at about 542mn in 2023 using national definitions of urban areas. The report instead applies the UN-endorsed “degree of urbanisation” method, which classifies cities, peripheries and towns consistently across countries and typically counts more people as urban.

Rapid urbanisation has not been accompanied by the productivity gains and structural transformation experienced in other regions. Using nighttime satellite illumination as a proxy for economic activity, the World Bank estimates that sub-Saharan African cities generate nearly 50% less activity than similarly sized cities at the global frontier.

Urban households nevertheless spend considerably more per adult than equally educated rural households, with the difference increasing in larger cities. This observed spending premium points to economic advantages associated with urban living, although it does not establish that urbanisation itself causes higher incomes or productivity.

“Much of the urban infrastructure needed for Sub-Saharan Africa’s future cities has yet to be built,” said Paschal Donohoe, World Bank Group Managing Director and Chief Knowledge Officer, adding that “decisions made now about where and how cities grow” could help create jobs, raise productivity and attract private investment for decades.

Transport remains a major constraint. Around one-quarter of firms identify transport as a serious obstacle, while only 32% of people in sub-Saharan Africa live within walking distance of public transport. Poor connections between residential areas and employment centres restrict access to jobs and discourage businesses from clustering in productive commercial centres.

The report projects that urban land area could expand by 90% by 2050, with rapidly growing city peripheries absorbing much of the increase. Nearly half the urban space required by mid-century has yet to be built, creating opportunities to establish roads, affordable housing and essential services before unplanned development raises costs.

The bank also identifies more than 15,000 towns as potential sources of employment and investment. It recommends concentrating infrastructure spending in settlements with stronger economic prospects, particularly along transport corridors, while prioritising education and healthcare in areas with fewer commercial opportunities.

“Stronger urban governance, more predictable financing, and greater accountability” are essential, said Mark Roberts, the World Bank’s lead urban economist and lead author of the report. The bank recommends modernising municipal property taxes, improving central government transfers and mobilising private investment through public-private partnerships in key city locations and by pairing large-scale development on city peripheries with special economic zones.

The report lands as headline growth improves. The World Bank’s October 6 Africa Economic Update projected sub-Saharan growth accelerating from 4.1% in 2025 to 4.3% in 2026, and the IMF on October 13 raised its 2026 regional forecast to 4.5%, although it expects GDP per capita to rise by just 2% a year in 2026 and 2027.

The jobs gap is stark at country level. Uganda’s economy creates jobs for only about 200,000 of the roughly 700,000 people who reach working age each year, according to figures from its National Planning Authority and the World Bank. Governments are also turning to private capital for urban housing: Malawi launched a MWK8.1 trillion ($4.7bn) housing and urban development strategy on October 13 targeting 135,000 new homes by 2031, with financing yet to be secured.

See IntelliNews: IMF raises sub-Saharan Africa growth forecast to 4.5% as outlook diverges
See IntelliNews: Uganda’s labour market absorbs only a third of new workers as youth unemployment pressures mount
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