The trilateral peace talks in Abu Dhabi ended in a stalemate with little progress made on the thorny issue of land concessions, but the parties did agree on another prisoner swap.

Ukraine and Russia concluded a second day of US-brokered talks in the United Arab Emirates, which the participants said was focused and pragmatic. The Kremlin is insisting that Bankova give up control of the remaining parts of the Donetsk region in the Donbas the Armed Forces of Russia (AFR) does not control and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy is refusing. However, the two warring parties did agree to exchange 314 prisoners of war.

Nevertheless, the talks “focused on concrete steps and practical solutions”, said Ukrainian Secretary of the National Security and Defence Council Rustem Umerov, who led the Ukraine delegation.

Steve Witkoff, the US special envoy leading the American mediation team alongside Jared Kushner, confirmed the prisoner exchange in a post on X on Thursday. While acknowledging the limits of the talks, Witkoff said that “significant work remains, steps like this demonstrate that sustained diplomatic engagement is delivering tangible results and advancing efforts to end the war in Ukraine.”

Before the conclusion of the session, Kirill Dmitriev, one of Moscow’s negotiators, told Russian state media that “things are moving forward in a good, positive direction.” He added that active work was under way to restore Russia’s relations with the US, including through a US-Russia working group on the economy. Dmitriev has been leading a parallel process in talks with Witkoff on possible US-Russia business deals if a peace in Ukraine can be concluded that would also include some sanctions relief.

European interference

However, Dmitriev also accused European countries of attempting to “disrupt the progress” of the talks and of seeking to “meddle” in the negotiating process, reflecting growing Russian frustration with European opposition to any deal that might legitimise Moscow’s territorial gains.

In the run up to the meeting Nato General Secretary Mark Rutte said earlier this week that the EU would send peacekeepers to a post-war Ukraine, something that the Kremlin has rejected out of hand. Russia would regard the deployment of any foreign military forces or infrastructure in Ukraine as foreign intervention and treat those forces as legitimate targets, the Russian Foreign Ministry said on Monday, citing Minister Sergei Lavrov.

"The deployment of military units, facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of Western countries in Ukraine is unacceptable to us and will be regarded as foreign intervention posing a direct threat to Russia's security," the ministry said on its website.

"The deployment of military units, facilities, warehouses, and other infrastructure of Western countries in Ukraine is unacceptable to us and will be regarded as foreign intervention posing a direct threat to Russia's security," the ministry said on its website.

To further heighten tensions, Rutte released some details of a multi-tier plan for enforcing any ceasefire with Russia where European forces would be dispatched and backed by US military in case of repeated Russian violations, the Financial Times reported.

Under this plan, initial violations of the ceasefire by Russia will trigger a first-phase response that includes a diplomatic warning to Russia and the necessary actions by Ukrainian forces to stop the violations within 24 hours. If violations continue or escalation becomes evident, a second phase will follow. The second phase will include forces from the Coalition of the Willing, which comprises many EU countries as well as the UK, Norway, Iceland, and Turkey. It could involve a reinforced military presence and active support for Ukrainian forces to deter Russian attacks. If the violation escalates into a broader attack, a third phase will commence 72 hours after the initial incident, involving a coordinated military response with US-backed forces. This will feature coordinated operations on land, in the air, and at sea, as well as intelligence and logistical support from Ukraine's Western allies.

The Kremlin has repeatedly rejected any presence of Nato-linked troops in Ukraine, which it says is a deal breaker.

This same week France has been making diplomatic overtures to the Kremlin as Europe has begun to call for reestablishing direct contacts. French President Emmanuel Macron said that he is in talks with the Kremlin on a possible meeting with Russian President Vladimir Putin and a high French foreign ministry official was in Moscow on February 4 to meet with Yuri Ushakov, Putin’s top foreign policy advisor.

Bankova under pressure

The Abu Dhabi meeting kicked off on January 24, the first time that all three of Russia, Ukraine and the US have sat at the same table since the war started almost four-years ago.

Zelenskiy said that ending hostilities is a top priority for Ukraine, and expressed hope that peace could be achieved, but qualified it saying that he didn’t think peace would come until next year. In January he was much more upbeat and said the war might be over by this summer.

Zelenskiy told French broadcaster France 2 that Russia is presenting ultimatums as if they were a search for compromise, while continuing to attack civilians and power assets as Putin attempts to freeze Ukraine into submission. Zelenskiy stressed that the more civilians Russia kills, the further it pushes back the prospect of real agreements.

The president’s position appears to have hardened during the course of the two weeks of talks in the UAE and has gone back to his “we stand where we stand” line, whereas early he suggested that he was prepared to make some compromises on territory. He suggested that if the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU) withdrew from Donbas, the AFR should withdraw by an equal distance in a Korea-DMZ-like model, which was rejected by the Kremlin. In the interview Zelenskiy stressed that the diplomatic path does not mean capitulation or acceptance of Russian ultimatums and repeated that Moscow's demand for the withdrawal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine from the entire Donbas is a "red line." He added that even "freezing" the front line at current positions would be a "huge concession" on the part of Ukraine, but he is ready for dialogue to preserve the independence of the state.

“People in Ukraine must feel that the situation is genuinely moving toward peace and the end of the war, not toward Russia using everything to its advantage and continuing attacks,” Zelenskiy said.

The Kremlin said that the “doors for a peaceful settlement are open,” but that Moscow will continue its military assault until Kyiv agrees to its demands.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio said it would take time to achieve a diplomatic breakthrough but claimed the administration of President Donald Trump had helped “substantially diminish” the number of unresolved issues between the warring parties.

“That’s the good news,” Rubio told reporters on February 4. “The bad news is that the items that remain are the most difficult ones. And meanwhile the war continues.”

But Washington’s reluctance to sign off on a US security guarantees deal has become another sticking point holding up the conclusion of the negotiations. The Trump administration has indicated that US security guarantees are contingent on Kyiv first agreeing a peace deal that would probably involve ceding the Donbas region to Russia, the FT previously reported. Zelenskiy told reporters he did not like the idea of “a quid pro quo”. “My signal was clear: signing security guarantees is an act of goodwill,” he said and suggests he wants the guarantee before he agrees to give up any territory.

Putin has said that his army is defeating Ukraine on the battlefield and is prepared to continue until it achieves its goals if no agreement is reached. Moscow continues to flatter the Trump administration, saying it valued the "purposeful efforts" of the Trump administration in working towards a resolution and understanding Russia's long-running concerns about Nato's eastward expansion and its overtures to Ukraine.