The Bank of Thailand kept its benchmark one-day repurchase rate at 1.00% for a fourth consecutive meeting, Reuters reported. The monetary policy committee voted unanimously, matching the expectations of all 26 economists the news agency surveyed.

The hold sets Thailand apart from regional central banks such as the Philippines, which have raised rates to counter price pressures tied to the war in the Middle East. The Thai policy rate has not moved since that conflict began, and most economists in the Reuters poll expect it to stay there until the end of 2027. The economy grew 2.4% last year, trailing its regional peers.

"The monetary committee sees that low rates will have a long-term effect. If the economy is strong enough, rates can gradually rise to maintain policy space," Assistant Governor Don Nakornthab said.

The bank lifted its growth projections to 2.4% for this year and 2.1% for 2027, up from the 2.3% and 1.8% it forecast in June. It attributed the upgrade to firmer exports and private investment in technology and artificial intelligence. It cautioned, however, that expansion was still short of the economy's potential and that the gains were not widely shared.

Gross domestic product rose 1.9% year on year in the second quarter, a sharp slowdown from 2.8% in the first three months of the year.

Exports, a key engine of Thai growth, are now expected to jump 22% this year. Earlier in October the bank had projected a rise of 17% to 18%, and in June it had forecast 14%. For 2027 it sees export growth of 15%, compared with the 4.6% it projected in June.

Tourism forecasts moved in the opposite direction. The bank now expects 32mn foreign visitors this year and 34.5mn in 2027, one million fewer in each case than its previous estimates.

Headline inflation is projected at 2.1% for this year, against 2.2% forecast earlier this month. For 2027 the bank expects 1.3%, down from the 1.4% it projected in June.

Between October 2024 and February 2026, the bank cut rates six times by a combined 150 basis points to support an economy held back by weak domestic demand and heavy household debt. In an interview earlier this month, Deputy Governor Piti Disyatat said policy would remain accommodative for now and that the rate would only normalise once the economy was ready.

The baht barely moved after the announcement. The committee's next meeting is on December 23.