Serbia's election victory for a student-led political movement could revive the country's stalled European Union membership bid and improve prospects for integration across the Western Balkans, provided the incoming government delivers reforms and repairs strained relations with its neighbours, a report by Brussels-based think-tank Bruegel said.

The Student List's decisive victory in the October 25 elections, which ended the rule of former president Aleksandar Vučić, creates an opportunity to reset Serbia's relationship with the EU and advance regional economic integration, Bruegel economist Nina Vujanović said in an analysis published on October 27.

The movement, which emerged from student protests and developed into a broader political campaign, has made strengthening the rule of law and fighting corruption central to its programme. These priorities correspond to some of the EU's most demanding requirements for membership, particularly reforms concerning the judiciary, fundamental rights, justice and security.

"The defeat of pro-Russian former president Aleksandar Vučić is seen as potentially putting Serbia back on track to become a member of the European Union," Vujanović wrote, while cautioning that questions remained about how the new political generation would translate its electoral mandate into progress in accession negotiations.

The European Commission is revising its enlargement approach, potentially creating an opportunity for closer integration before formal membership.

Serbia's progress would have implications well beyond its own accession prospects. The country accounts for approximately half of the Western Balkans' population and gross domestic product, giving it considerable economic and political influence over Albania, Bosnia and Herzegovina, Kosovo, Montenegro and North Macedonia.

The EU also makes good neighbourly relations and post-war reconciliation conditions of membership, areas in which relations deteriorated under Vučić's leadership.

Reforms and economic integration

The new government will face institutional obstacles in implementing its reform agenda. Although the Student List secured 53% of the vote, it lacks the two-thirds parliamentary majority required for certain judicial appointments, including the confirmation of senior judges and prosecutors.

The constitutional requirements could complicate efforts to strengthen judicial independence and tackle corruption, despite the movement's electoral mandate.

Delivering progress on these issues could also unlock EU financial assistance currently withheld from Serbia under the bloc's Growth Plan, Vujanović said.

Economic ties provide another potential route towards closer integration. The EU is Serbia's largest trading partner, accounting for around two-thirds of its exports, with European demand particularly important for the country's automotive industry and its associated supply chains.

The Student List's programme identifies the EU as essential to Serbia's economic development and calls for stronger partnerships with the bloc.

Vujanović argued that the incoming government should explore new trade arrangements that would give Serbian companies better access to the EU single market and facilitate gradual integration into it ahead of full membership.

One possibility would be a Deep and Comprehensive Free Trade Agreement (DCFTA), modelled on arrangements the EU has concluded with Moldova and Ukraine. Such an agreement could help remove non-tariff barriers, improve market access and bring Serbian businesses closer to European regulatory standards.

The benefits could extend to other Western Balkan economies, particularly Kosovo, Bosnia and Herzegovina and North Macedonia, whose EU accession processes have made comparatively slow progress.

Greater integration would also create opportunities for European companies to expand regional supply chains, particularly in green investment and manufacturing industries where the Western Balkans offers relatively low production costs.

Regional relations crucial

Serbia's relationship with its neighbours will be another test of the new government's EU ambitions, particularly its approach to Kosovo.

The Student List has emphasised the importance of regional economic cooperation through the Central European Free Trade Agreement (CEFTA), which provides a framework for trade integration among Western Balkan economies and helps prepare them for eventual EU membership.

Vujanović suggested that reviving economic and trade relations between Serbia and Kosovo under CEFTA could provide an initial step towards repairing their strained relationship.

The movement's popularity across the region could also give it greater scope to promote cooperation with neighbouring governments, she said.

Improved regional relations would be important not only for Serbia's own accession negotiations but also for countries whose progress towards EU membership depends partly on resolving bilateral disputes and strengthening economic links.

The political transition nevertheless faces considerable challenges. Reversing institutional weaknesses, restoring confidence in democratic processes and implementing judicial reforms will require sustained political commitment rather than simply an electoral change of government.

"Serbia's new government must foster democratic and economic renewal in the context of an EU-focused future," Vujanović wrote.

She argued that the outcome of the Serbian election could create an opportunity for a broader revival of EU integration across the Western Balkans, provided the new leadership translates its promises into concrete reforms and closer cooperation with neighbouring countries.