Since the invasion of Ukraine hundreds of thousands of Russians have escaped to the countries of the Middle East to find refuge. But as a fresh war breaks out in Iran, they are scrambling to flee in the face of regional air disruption and a barrage of missiles raining down on their new homes.

Iran has targeted all of the members of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries targeting US military assets and air defence units, some of which are close to large urban centres. Tehran is also believed to be punishing some of its neighbours for nominally espousing neutrality, but in reality hosting US forces outposts in the region.

At the same time, Iran has been targeting luxury hotels and residential areas where it is said last month US personnel have been evacuated as US military bases were emptied of personnel ahead of the war.

Tens of thousands of Russians stranded across the Middle East are seeking routes out of the region as the war between the US, Israel and Iran expands and disrupts air travel throughout the Persian Gulf’s main aviation hubs.

Airspace restrictions and security concerns have paralysed major transit points including Dubai and Doha, which are two of the favourite loculations for Russians that relocated following the start of the war in Ukraine. According to estimates cited by The Bell, about 50,000 Russians are currently in the United Arab Emirates alone, with roughly another 2,000 spread out across neighbouring countries.

With commercial flights disrupted or fully booked, some travellers are taking long overland journeys to reach airports still operating. The typical evacuation route from Dubai involves travelling by minibus to Muscat in Oman — a journey of up to five hours plus as much as four hours at the border — or a drive of more than ten hours to Riyadh in Saudi Arabia. From there, passengers attempt to secure either charter or commercial flights to Europe or Russia.

Oman has been relatively immune from the attacks thanks to its stance of neutrality and its active diplomatic intermediation between the US and Iran in the run up to the start of Operation Epic Fury that started on February 28. Iran targeted Oman’s port on the second day of the war, but according to bne IntelliNews sources in Muscat, the Iranians have since admitted to the Omani authorities that it was a “mistake.” Oman is unusual amongst the GCC members in that it hosts no US military bases or other military assets. However, after Iran activated its Decentralized Mosaic Defence doctrine (DMD), Iranian Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) units are acting increasingly autonomously and the local commanders are making decisions without reference to a central command that has largely been decapitated by Israeli missile strikes.

Prices for transport have surged sharply. Insurance companies and transport providers are charging rates starting at $5,000 per seat in a vehicle that previously cost less than $300, according to The Bell.

At the other end of the market, wealthy travellers are turning to private aviation. Several air brokers told The Bell that the cost of chartering a business jet from the Middle East to Europe now ranges from $175,000 to $350,000, at least double the usual price.

Online forums used by Russian expatriates and tourists have filled with accounts of people stranded without cash or functioning credit cards, facing hotel evictions or sharply rising rents while waiting days for flights.

The Russian government has begun organising repatriation flights for some travellers. President Vladimir Putin “personally directed repatriation flights for the former today, issuing instructions to the Foreign Ministry and the Ministry of Emergency Situations”, The Bell reported.

Russia’s Minister of Economic Development Maxim Reshetnikov said about 6,000 people had been evacuated so far, more than half of them organised tour groups, while approximately 20,000 Russians remain in the UAE. Those travelling independently may have to arrange their own departures and could face waiting weeks for flights as authorities limit the number of flight permits.

The disruption comes as the conflict enters its sixth day and the Strait of Hormuz remains effectively blocked, raising concerns over regional security and global energy supplies.

Meanwhile, military officials say Iran’s strike capacity may be weakening. Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff General Dan Kaine said Tehran had reduced ballistic missile launches by 23% and drone attacks by 73% over the previous 24 hours.