Fewer than half of Ukrainian refugees now say they plan to return home after the war with Russia, according to new survey data, as the country’s demographic crisis continues to escalate.

A poll conducted by Info Sapiens for the Kyiv-based Centre for Economic Strategy (CES) shows a steady decline in the share of refugees intending to go back to Ukraine since the early stages of the full-scale invasion in 2022.

The most recent survey, conducted between December 2025 and January 2026, found that only 43% of respondents said they either “definitely plan to return” or “rather plan to return”.

That compares with 74% in November 2022, when half of refugees surveyed said they “definitely plan to return” and a further 24% said they “rather plan to return”. The proportion has fallen consistently in subsequent surveys, reaching 63% in May 2023 and 52% in January 2024.

By early 2026, only 19% of respondents said they “definitely plan to return”, while 24% said they “rather plan to return”. At the same time, the share of refugees indicating they were unlikely to go back has risen markedly: 20% said they “rather do not plan to return” and 17% said they “definitely do not plan to return”. A further 20% said it was “hard to say”.

The findings underline Ukraine’s long-term demographic collapse as the war enters its fifth year. Ukraine is now suffering from the worst demographics in the world with mortality running at three times higher than fertility. The World Bank estimates the population will fall from 35mn pre-war to as low as 16mn by 2030, due to the higher death rates and lack of babies.

An estimate 5.6mn Ukrainians — many of them women and children — remain abroad, primarily in EU countries that granted temporary protection after Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022 and few intend to return should the war halt.

Researchers at the Centre for Economic Strategy warned that prolonged displacement risks turning temporary migration into permanent settlement, particularly as refugees establish employment, education and social ties in host countries.

The survey asked respondents: “Do you plan to return to Ukraine?” and tracked responses across multiple waves between November 2022 and January 2026. Analysts say the gradual shift in attitudes reflects both the duration of the conflict and uncertainty over Ukraine’s economic recovery and security environment once the war ends.