Russia's economic growth slowed to 0.5% y/y in September from 0.8% in August, on an estimate by the Ministry of Economic Development, Kommersant reported on October 29.

Growth in the third quarter was 0.6%, down from 1.3% in the second quarter, and the economy expanded by just 0.6% in the first nine months. A recovery in manufacturing failed to offset continued contraction in the extractive industries and wholesale trade, while agricultural output fell 12.3% y/y after growing 6.6% in August.

The figures leave Russia close to stagnation. The Bank of Russia expects growth of 0.5-1.0% for 2026 and kept its key rate at 14% on October 23, while consumer demand is weakening as households spend a larger share of their income and save less.

Russia's real GDP, % change on a year earlier, quarterly, 1Q22 to 2Q26. The ministry's 0.6% estimate for 3Q26 is not yet an official Rosstat figure. Source: Rosstat via IMF and IntelliNews Lambda.

Rosstat, which compiles the official quarterly figures, has yet to publish its first estimate for the third quarter.

This article was produced with the help of IntelliNews Lambda analytical tool