Poland lost an estimated PLN490.1bn (€113.5bn) in economic output during 2022–2025 because of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, according to an estimate from the statistics office GUS made public on September 9.

The estimate builds on the spike in inflation caused by the war and increased defence spending, which drained Poland’s financial resources that might have been earmarked for other purposes.

“High inflation caused a sharp rise in nominal wages, but real wage growth slowed after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. In 2022, wages fell by 2% in real terms,” GUS President Marek Cierpiał-Wolan told this year’s edition of the Economic Forum in Karpacz, according to PAP.

“This prompted us to estimate households’ losses, meaning the decline in the purchasing power of their savings. We made the cautious assumption that one-third of inflation above the inflation target was caused by the escalation of the war,” Cierpiał-Wolan also said.

According to Cierpiał-Wolan, if national defence spending in 2022–2025 had remained at the level proposed in the original draft of the Homeland Defence Act, it would have been PLN154.2bn lower than the amount actually spent.

“That money could have been used for other purposes, perhaps more effective in terms of economic growth. This is very important, particularly given that this amount was essentially financed, or is still being financed, by running a deficit,” Cierpiał-Wolan said.

Overall, households accounted for PLN292.1bn of the losses, companies PLN126bn and central and local government PLN72bn, according to the estimate.

Poland's GDP still managed growth of 5.3% in 2022, the first year of invasion. But the expansion dwindled to just 0.2% in 2023 on the back of high inflation, subdued consumer spending and sluggish German economy.

GDP growth recovered to 3% and 3.6% in 2024 and 2025, respectively.