Economies of countries seeking to join the European Union could increase GDP per capita by 30% to 35% within a decade, repeating gains seen in previous enlargement rounds, International Monetary Fund (IMF) managing director Kristalina Georgieva said on September 8.

The estimate is contained in a new IMF paper examining the Western Balkans and Moldova, which Georgieva said shared economic features with countries that benefited from earlier EU accessions.

"In past enlargement rounds, GDP per capita increased by more than 30 percent within a decade in regions that joined the EU compared with similar regions that did not," Georgieva said in remarks at the Centre for European Policy Studies in Brussels, according to a transcript published by the IMF.

"Our new IMF paper shows that candidate countries could repeat this success and increase their GDP per capita by 30 to 35 percent within a decade."

Georgieva said the benefits of enlargement extended to existing EU members as well as new entrants, arguing that expanding the bloc's single market could help Europe withstand weaker global growth, trade restrictions and geopolitical tensions.

"Done well, enlargement can provide a much-needed boost to growth in Europe—for both candidate countries and existing members," she said.

The IMF estimates that productivity would account for roughly two-thirds of the income gains from EU accession. Georgieva said productivity increases when businesses respond to greater investment and competition opportunities created by integration.

"But productivity does not magically arrive with EU membership. It must be earned," she said. "It arises when local and foreign investors and businesses see new opportunities in accession countries. It arises when firms innovate, invest, and compete."

Higher productivity would in turn support wages and jobs while reducing incentives for workers to emigrate, she said.

"Talent stays at home and gets put to work," Georgieva said, calling productivity growth "the ultimate pathway to prosperity."

The IMF paper identifies three main drivers of convergence: domestic reforms aligned with the EU acquis, access to the single market and effective use of EU funding. Each accounts for about one-third of potential income gains in the IMF's baseline assessment.

Georgieva stressed that differences in how reforms and EU funds are implemented help explain why some countries converge faster than others.

"Strong governance is critically important here," she said, arguing that better institutions reduce uncertainty, encourage investment and improve public spending.

Georgieva said enlargement was particularly relevant given the weaker global economic environment. Global growth is projected at about 3% this year, compared with 5.3% in 2004, when the EU's biggest enlargement wave took place.

"Does that make enlargement less relevant? No. On the contrary!" she said.

She called on candidate countries to implement EU rules effectively and avoid unnecessary "gold-plating", while urging the EU to deepen and simplify its single market.

"Enlargement and single-market deepening should be seen as complements: a larger Europe can be a stronger Europe - but much more so if it is a more integrated Europe," Georgieva said.

The IMF will also open a new technical assistance centre in Rome in the coming weeks for Western Balkan countries and Moldova, complementing an existing centre in Vienna and support for Ukraine.