ED – this is bne IntelliNews's annual OUTLOOK report for Poland. We are making forward-looking assessments for major Global Emerging Markets in Emerging Europe, Asia, Latin America, Africa and the Middle East, drawing on insightful reporting from our bureaus around the world.

What is on the agenda? What are the prospects for economic growth, and what problems lie in store in the coming year? The detailed reports cover business, economics, finance, energy, politics and the major sectors of the most important markets.  

A year without an election should, in theory, be a year of political calm – but not in Poland in the late 2020s, nor elsewhere. In an era in which social media amplifies polarisation and rewards confrontation, politics offers little respite. The coalition government led by Prime Minister Donald Tusk is expected to intensify its efforts to avoid the fate of a one-term interlude after toppling the seemingly unassailable Law and Justice (PiS) in 2023. Those efforts are complicated by the election of PiS-aligned President Karol Nawrocki, whose veto power is already being used to block key reforms and to portray the government as ineffective.

Domestic political tensions are unfolding against a backdrop of acute global geopolitical uncertainty. Poland once again finds itself on the frontline, bordering an increasingly assertive Russia. Unlike in previous decades, however, Poland’s alliance with the United States can no longer be taken for granted. Washington appears more willing to accommodate Russian interests while simultaneously exploring ways to weaken the European Union, including by leveraging divisions within member states such as Poland. This prospect is viewed with deep concern by the Tusk government but resonates with parts of the Polish right, which Nawrocki may ultimately seek to unify under his leadership.

Despite this volatile political environment, Poland’s economic outlook for 2026 remains relatively strong. Growth is expected to continue at a solid pace, a result that may appear counterintuitive given the intensity of political conflict. Still, analysts point to early warning signs, most notably Poland’s adverse demographic trends, which weigh on long-term potential growth.

Barring black-swan events – such as a Russian border provocation spiralling out of control – the balance of risks suggests that 2026 may nevertheless prove a relatively tranquil year, even if underlying political and geopolitical tensions remain unresolved.