Western Balkan frontrunners Montenegro and Albania must do more to convince sceptical EU member states of their value or risk delays to their 2030 accession ambitions, a Strategic Europe paper published by Carnegie Europe said on April 14. 

In a commentary titled ‘How to Join the EU in Three Easy Steps’, authors senior fellow Dimitar Bechev and research analyst Iliriana Gjoni of Carnegie Europe said the EU enlargement process is quietly advancing, but faces mounting political risks within the bloc.

“Unnoticed by many, EU enlargement is moving forward at a steady pace,” they wrote, pointing to progress in negotiations with Montenegro and expectations that European Commission could soon advance Albania to the final stage of talks.

However, they warned that early optimism could give way to resistance in key EU countries. “It is only a matter of time before far-right populists in France, Germany, or the Netherlands wake up to the EU’s imminent expansion,” the authors said, cautioning that migration fears could complicate ratification.

Political risks beyond the Balkans

Even if accession talks progress, membership must be approved by all EU states, a process increasingly shaped by domestic politics. The authors highlight France as a potential hurdle, where constitutional rules could require a parliamentary supermajority or even a referendum.

In this context, they argue that traditional geopolitical arguments, such as countering Russian or Chinese influence, are no longer sufficient. “Geopolitical arguments… won’t do the trick,” they said.

Instead, candidate countries must present a compelling economic and strategic case. “What Montenegro and Albania… need is to make a positive case for their membership,” the report said, urging them to position themselves “as a net asset for the union, not a burden.”

One of the strongest arguments lies in defence. Both countries, alongside North Macedonia, are members of Nato and already contribute to European security. They participate in Nato battlegroups in Eastern Europe, take part in joint exercises and have provided support to Ukraine. They are also involved in peacekeeping missions in Kosovo and Bosnia.

While their military capacity is limited, the authors say their role could grow. Expanding deployments would help “free up EU countries to increase their efforts on the Eastern flank and in Ukraine.”

The report also highlights the region’s strategic geography, noting that transport corridors linking the Adriatic and Black Sea could play a crucial role in moving troops and equipment across Europe.

Beyond security, the Western Balkans can strengthen their case through the green transition. Albania already generates nearly all its electricity from renewable sources, while Montenegro’s energy system is also dominated by hydropower, supplemented by wind and solar.

This shift not only improves energy resilience but also supports economic growth. Stable, affordable electricity is vital for industries such as tourism and manufacturing, both central to the region’s economies.

The authors also point to emerging opportunities in digital infrastructure, including data centres needed for artificial intelligence development. With lower labour and land costs, combined with gradual alignment with EU rules, the region could complement existing European tech hubs.

Reform challenges persist

Despite these advantages, structural problems remain. Weak institutions, corruption and labour shortages driven by years of emigration continue to undermine competitiveness. The authors argue that deeper integration into the EU’s single market, along with institutional reform and better regional connectivity, will be essential.

“It is a cliché that small, fragmented national markets are not competitive,” they note, calling for closer cooperation to attract investment.

At the same time, they suggest that the Western Balkans can align their message with the EU’s growing focus on competitiveness following recent policy debates in Brussels.

Montenegro and Albania could advance together, potentially alongside Iceland, whose accession is seen as less contentious. But they could also become entangled in more politically complex enlargement cases, such as Ukraine and Moldova, slowing their progress.

“That is why they cannot remain passive applicants,” the authors warn. “To meet the 2030 target, they must make the case… that their accession strengthens Europe’s security, competitiveness, and cohesion.”

With enlargement back on the EU agenda, the coming years will be decisive. For the Western Balkans’ leading candidates, success will depend not only on reforms at home, but also on winning over increasingly cautious audiences across Europe.