Tisza's April 12 landslide election victory in Hungary reflects deep domestic frustration rather than foreign policy concerns, but could pave the way for a reset in relations with the European Union, analysts told a European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) webinar on April 13.

The result was a dramatic shift in Hungarian politics, with opposition leader Péter Magyar securing more than 3mn votes, ending Prime Minister Viktor Orban’s long era in power.

“The election showed overwhelmingly that Hungarian society wanted change,” said Zsuzsanna Végh,  programme officer at the German Marshall Fund. 

“The result is incredibly impressive from a party that has just been around for less than two years. We have never seen such a high turnout in Hungary … it is a massive landslide victory that went well beyond the capital.” She highlighted the scale of mobilisation, noting that “nearly 6mn voted, we have never seen a party getting this much support.”

Végh said voters were driven primarily by domestic grievances. “There was frustration because of the erosion of democracy, but it was largely economic issues,” she said. Cost-of-living pressures and dissatisfaction with governance dominated voter concerns.

Domestic focus, European implications

That assessment was echoed by Paweł Zerka, senior policy fellow at the ECFR, who said voters were motivated mainly by internal issues rather than foreign policy.

“Few people voted because of foreign policy or European issues,” Zerka said. Among Magyar’s supporters, he noted that one third cited corruption and governance; others prioritised the cost of living and inflation, or decaying public services.”

However, he argued that these concerns overlap with Hungary’s relationship with Europe. Voters may have supported change in order for Hungary “to become — or re-become — a normal European country, with not too much corruption, that benefits from EU funds to support the growth of the national economy.”

The scale of the victory gives the incoming government a strong mandate to repair ties with Brussels, analysts said, although questions remain.

According to Végh, early priorities are likely to include reforms aimed at unlocking frozen EU funds. “Immediate reforms necessary for the release of Hungary’s frozen structural funds and recovery funds… will also necessitate a reset with the EU,” she said.

Piotr Buras, head of ECFR Warsaw and senior policy fellow  said the result signals a broader shift in Hungary’s European orientation, pointing to Magyar’s mandate for reorientation of Hungary’s foreign policy, though he cautioned against excessive optimism.

“I would warn against too high expectations,” Buras said, drawing parallels with Donald Tusk’s victory against the rightwing Law and Justice (PiS) party in Poland where, he said, after the initial euphoria after the election, “some of the expectations have been disappointed because of domestic constraints, the expectations of Polish society.”

Ukraine and Russia policy

One key test will be Hungary’s stance on Ukraine. Buras said a minimum expectation from the EU would be that Budapest aligns with core European positions. “Whether Budapest subscribes to the European consensus… I think this is the minimum,” he said.

But deeper support may prove more complicated. Zerka noted divisions among voters; while Magyar’s supporters are generally more sympathetic to Ukraine than Fidesz’, they are split on issues such as financial aid and EU membership. “The government won’t have national numbers to be too pro-Ukrainian,” she said.

On Russia, analysts suggested there is more room for change. Végh argued that previous policies were influenced by external factors rather than domestic demand. “Not the promotion of Hungarian interests, but the protection of Russian interests,” she said. A series of recent scandals exposing apparent links between Moscow and top-level Fidesz officials has sparked a backlash against Orban’s pro-Russian stance, which is likely to give the new leadership space to shift position.

Despite expectations of a reset, analysts stressed that change is likely to be gradual and selective.

Végh said reforms would initially focus on core democratic institutions. “Rule of law, anti corruption, judiciary reforms will be a priority, the institutional core of democracy,” she said, while noting uncertainty over broader issues such as pluralism and minority rights.

Buras also pointed to Hungary’s continued dependence on Russian energy. Plans to end reliance on Russian oil and gas by 2035 make Hungary an outlier in the EU. 

The Hungarian election could also reshape dynamics within the EU, particularly within the centre-right European People’s Party (EPP). Buras suggested Magyar’s victory might strengthen more conservative voices in European debates. For example Hungary’s new leadership, alongside figures such as Tusk, could play a greater role in shaping EU policies on issues like migration and climate.

However, initially, the immediate focus will be on domestic reforms and rebuilding trust with European partners.