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Missile War Monitor: Russia hits Trypillia power plant in biggest energy strike since last heating season

Russia damaged the Trypillia power plant and forced emergency blackouts in Kyiv on September 30 in its largest combined strike on Ukraine's grid since the last heating season, officials said.
Missile War Monitor: Russia hits Trypillia power plant in biggest energy strike since last heating season
Russia struck Ukraine's power system with its largest combined attack since the end of last winter, damaging the Trypillia power plant and using a pylon-cutting drone warhead for the first time, Ukrainian officials said.
October 1, 2026

Russia damaged the Trypillia power plant and forced emergency blackouts in Kyiv on September 30 in its largest combined strike on Ukraine's grid since the last heating season, officials said.

"Since the summer, there has been practically no day when the enemy has not attacked energy infrastructure. But such a massive and combined attack has occurred for the first time since the end of the last heating season," Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Ukraine's Air Force said Russia launched 188 attack drones, 86 of them jet-powered, as well as Zircon and Onyx anti-ship missiles and Iskander-M and S-400 ballistic missiles overnight, and that five missiles and 155 drones were shot down or suppressed, Ukrinform reported. It recorded hits at 18 locations. State generating company Centrenergo said equipment at the Trypillia thermal power plant in the Kyiv region was damaged and withheld the extent for security reasons.

Missile alerts cost Ukraine an estimated $45mn for every hour they force businesses to stop, and Russian attacks have caused about $10bn of damage to fixed assets this year, Economy Minister Oleksandr Kravchenko told the Guardian, the Kyiv Independent reported. Steel plants, warehouses, logistics hubs and data centres have all been hit, he said.

The attacks continued overnight into October 1. The Air Force said Russia launched 107 drones, 63 of them jet-powered, from 18:00 on September 30, that 87 had been downed by 08:00 and that hits were recorded at 11 locations while the attack was still under way, Interfax-Ukraine reported. No missiles were mentioned.

In Russia, the defence ministry said its air defences downed 384 Ukrainian drones over 19 regions on the night of September 29-30, TASS reported, and 123 more between 08:00 and 20:00 Moscow time on September 30, EADaily reported. Its tally for the night of September 30-October 1 and most governors' reports for that night were not yet published at the time of writing.

Refinery strikes

Nationwide: no new strike on a Russian refinery was found in the 24 hours to the time of writing. The Russian side of the night of September 30-October 1 is not yet reported at the time of writing.

Krasnodar region: UPDATE, September 26 strike: the Ilsky refinery has halted after the strike damaged three crude-processing units, AT-4, AT-5 and AT-6, which together account for more than 86% of the plant's crude-processing capacity, IntelliNews reported on September 30, citing drone maker Fire Point and satellite imagery analysed by Militarnyi. Russian authorities have not confirmed the damage or the shutdown, and no restart has been reported.

Nationwide: the government on September 30 extended its ban on exports of diesel, marine fuel and gasoil by producers through October 31, IntelliNews reported.

Nationwide: plants reported halted or cut in September account for about 121.6mn tonnes a year, or 37% of Russia's 327mn tonnes nameplate capacity, by IntelliNews' refinery ledger, and up to 159.2mn tonnes, or 49%, if earlier halts still hold. The Ilsky halt, which rests on Ukrainian sources, is not counted. Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak said in early September that about 10% of Russian refining capacity was under repair.

Metal plants hit

Nationwide: No new strike on a Ukrainian metals plant was found in the 48 hours to the time of writing.

Sumy: six guided glide bombs damaged homes, municipal infrastructure and a civilian industrial enterprise on September 30 and injured six people, the State Emergency Service and acting mayor Artem Kobzar said, Ukrinform reported. The enterprise was not named. The status of 38 Ukrainian steel, iron ore, coke, ferroalloy, pipe and non-ferrous plants is tracked in IntelliNews' metals and mining ledger, linked below.

Oil depots, factories and military targets in Russia

Bryansk region: a Ukrainian drone attack on Trubchevsk on September 30 injured 12 people, including nine students, acting governor Yegor Kovalchuk said, TASS reported. Russian media reported that a fuel tanker truck near a dairy plant beside a college was hit. Lenta.ru gave seven students among the injured.

Rostov region: falling debris started a dry-grass fire in the Chertkovsky district on the night of September 29-30, which was put out with no casualties, Governor Yuri Slyusar said, TASS reported.

Tyumen region: drones were intercepted on September 30 and Roshchino airport halted flights for several hours, 72.ru reported. The target was not disclosed and no damage was reported.

Occupied Luhansk, Donetsk and Zaporizhzhia regions and Crimea: Ukraine's General Staff said its forces hit a command and observation post in Lysychansk, a drone depot in Hranitne, a repair base in Starobilsk and logistics depots in Azovske, Manhush, Novoandriivka, Volnovakha and Kumove in Crimea on the night of September 29-30, LB.ua reported. It did not say which weapons were used.

Ukraine under fire

Kyiv: UPDATE, September 30 attack: three people were killed, two in the Sviatoshynskyi district and one in the Solomianskyi district, and seven were injured, the Kyiv Independent reported. DTEK restored power to 8,000 customers on the left bank during the day.

Nationwide: casualty totals for September 30 differ. The Kyiv Independent counted at least six killed and 34 injured across Ukraine, while Zelenskiy put the toll from the day's attack at seven killed, including a child, and 24 injured, Ukrinform reported.

Kyiv, Kyiv region, Chernihiv region and Zhytomyr region: emergency power outages were introduced on the evening of September 30 because of equipment overload after the Russian attack, grid operator Ukrenergo said, Ukrinform reported.

Kyiv region: homes were damaged in the Bucha, Obukhiv, Bila Tserkva and Boryspil districts later on September 30, along with an educational institution in Bila Tserkva and an industrial building in Fastiv, and a woman was injured in the Boryspil district, the regional administration said, Ukrinform reported.

Kyiv: on the night of September 30-October 1 a fire broke out in a flat in a 16-storey building in the Solomianskyi district, a warehouse burned in the Obolonskyi district and debris fell in the Pecherskyi district, and one man was injured, the State Emergency Service said, UNIAN reported.

Odesa: a strike hit a business centre overnight on October 1, damaging the roofs and facades of two buildings and destroying part of a fifth-floor wall, and one person was injured, Governor Oleh Kiper said, Ukrinform reported.

Mykolaiv region: a 50-year-old man was killed and a tractor destroyed in a drone attack on the Vesnianka community early on October 1, acting regional head Heorhii Reshetilo said, Ukrinform reported.

Odesa region: Russia's defence ministry said it struck port infrastructure in Izmail and a cargo ship in the Black Sea on September 30, Vedomosti reported. No Ukrainian confirmation was found.

Nationwide: the Air Force said Russia launched 285 strike drones, 174 of them jet-powered, between 06:30 and 18:30 on September 30, and that 254 were neutralised, Ukrinform reported.

Data centres, telecoms, media and R&D

Kyiv: Russia's defence ministry said it struck the De Novo data centre, which it described as an internet traffic exchange point serving the army, and a communications centre in Kyiv on September 30, IntelliNews reported. The claim could not be verified, and no statement from De Novo had been found at the time of writing.

Nationwide: the government allocated UAH518.3mn ($11.6mn) from its reserve fund for geographically separated backup systems and cloud infrastructure for state services, Prime Minister Serhii Koretskyi said on September 29, Interfax-Ukraine reported.

Weapons and technology

Russia used a jet-powered drone carrying a shaped-charge cutting warhead for the first time on September 30, presidential adviser Serhii Beskrestnov said. It is designed to destroy high-voltage pylons and steel bridge structures and consists of a 40 kg main charge and four strike modules. "I think the enemy plans to attack important high-voltage power transmission lines," he said, the Kyiv Independent reported.

Russia launched about 2,000 jet-powered drones at Ukraine in September against about 350 in June, and more than half of Ukraine's F-16 fleet is affected by maintenance delays at Belgium's Sabena Aerospace, the editorial board of the Wall Street Journal wrote, citing a Western source.

German Foreign Minister Johann Wadephul said he expected air-defence deliveries to Ukraine from "at least two more countries", Ukrinform reported on September 29.

"Weapons factories in European countries that produce arms for Ukraine are potential military targets for Russia," Foreign Ministry spokeswoman Maria Zakharova said on September 30, the Kyiv Independent reported. Russia also told Nato it was ready to use its entire arsenal if the alliance tried to isolate the Kaliningrad region, and Nato spokeswoman Allison Hart condemned "irresponsible nuclear rhetoric", the Kyiv Post reported.

A Tu-95MS strategic bomber crashed in the Amur region on September 29, killing six crew members, IntelliNews reported. Russia's defence ministry called it a training flight; no Ukrainian claim was found.

Russia's central bank will let banks apply lower risk weights to loans that finance drone defences for critical infrastructure, IntelliNews reported, citing Kommersant.

Arson and sabotage in the EU and the UK

Estonia: UPDATE, Milrem arson: Estonia summoned Russia's chargé d'affaires after attributing the August 15 fire at the defence company to Russian intelligence, Militarnyi reported. Nato Secretary General Mark Rutte called it part of a "reckless campaign of hostile actions", Al Jazeera reported.

Moldova: a drone entered Moldovan airspace at about 05:43 on September 30 and crashed and exploded outside the village of Hirbovat in the Anenii Noi district, with no casualties, the defence ministry said, Moldpres reported. A second drone was detected near the village of Lunga at 10:26, Moldovalive reported. Neither authority named the launching side beyond linking the drones to Russia's attack on Ukraine.

Romania: two Spanish F-18s were scrambled on the night of September 29-30 after an aerial target was detected near Izmail, and the defence ministry said no violation of Romanian airspace was detected, UNN reported.

Poland: Rzeszow and Lublin airports briefly suspended operations during the Russian attack on September 30, RFE/RL reported. No new arson or sabotage incident in the EU or the UK was found for September 30-October 1 in a limited search.

Tit for tat

Russia hit Ukraine's grid with what Kyiv called its biggest combined strike since the last heating season and a new weapon built to cut power lines, while Russia's defence ministry reported Ukrainian drones over 19 regions and Ukraine's General Staff claimed hits on depots in occupied territory. Moscow warned European arms makers they were targets, as Estonia pressed its case over the Milrem arson.

The ledgers

The running ledgers are kept as six public spreadsheets at permanent addresses. The first three are non-exhaustive, every row is sourced, and where only one side has spoken the row says so. Defence ministry figures are recorded as claims, and in the sabotage ledger attribution is given exactly as the authorities state it and no further. The fourth tracks what has happened to Ukraine's steel, iron ore, coke, ferroalloy and non-ferrous plants since 2021, grouped by owner. The fifth, started on September 27, follows strikes on data centres, telecoms, media and research sites.

RUSSIA STRIKES LEDGER: Russian strikes on Ukraine's economic infrastructure, 308 rows

UKRAINE STRIKES LEDGER: Ukrainian strikes on economic infrastructure in Russia and occupied territory, 177 rows

ARSON & SABOTAGE LEDGER: Arson, sabotage and drone incursions in the EU and the UK, 64 rows

METAL STRIKES LEDGER: Ukraine's metals and mining assets: 2021 baseline against status in September 2026, 38 plants and mines

DATA CENTRE & TELECOM STRIKES LEDGER: Data centres, telecoms, media and research sites hit in Ukraine, 30 rows

REFINERY STRIKES LEDGER: Russian oil refineries hit, and how badly, 27 refineries

Refinery Region Capacity (mn t/yr) Strikes Latest hit Worst damage (0-4) Status now
Ryazan Ryazan region 17.1 15 September 6, 2026 4 Halted (September 10, 2026)
Moscow (Kapotnya) Moscow 12 5 September 20, 2026 4 Halted (September 22, 2026)
Kirishi (KINEF) Leningrad region 20.1 8 August 30, 2026 4 Halted (September 15, 2026)
Yaroslavl (Slavneft-YANOS) Yaroslavl region 15 15 September 17, 2026 4 Halted (September 17, 2026)
Nizhny Novgorod (Lukoil NORSI, Kstovo) Nizhny Novgorod region 17 10 August 26, 2026 4 Partly operating (~25%) (September 15, 2026)
Volgograd Volgograd region 14.8 11 July 31, 2026 4 Partly operating (~25%) (September 15, 2026)
Saratov Saratov region 7 10 September 11, 2026 4 Halted (September 16, 2026)
Syzran Samara region 8.5 10 September 15, 2026 4 Halted (September 16, 2026)
Novokuibyshevsk Samara region 8.3 7 August 22, 2026 4 Unknown after 22 Aug 2026 fire (August 22, 2026)
Kuibyshev (Samara) Samara region 7 6 September 23, 2026 4 Unknown after 22 Sep 2026 strike (September 23, 2026)
Tuapse Krasnodar region 12 11 May 27, 2026 4 Halted (no restart reported) (April 21, 2026)
Afipsky Krasnodar region 6.2 15 August 25, 2026 1 No halt reported (August 27, 2026)
Ilsky Krasnodar region 6.6 14 September 26, 2026 3 Halt claimed by Ukraine's Fire Point, not confirmed (September 26, 2026)
Slavyansk ECO Krasnodar region 5.2 9 September 13, 2026 4 No halt reported after 13 Sep 2026 (September 17, 2026)
Krasnodar Krasnodar region 3 2 August 30, 2025 1 No halt reported (August 30, 2025)
Novoshakhtinsk Rostov region 5 7 September 25, 2026 4 Halted (temporarily suspended) (September 25, 2026)
Ufa group (Bashneft: Ufaneftekhim, Novoil, UNPZ) Bashkortostan 23.4 15 September 23, 2026 2 Operating, units under repair (September 22, 2026)
Salavat Bashkortostan 10 5 August 13, 2026 4 Halted (no restart reported) (August 14, 2026)
Nizhnekamsk (TANECO) Tatarstan 16 7 September 13, 2026 4 Unclear / partly operating (September 18, 2026)
Nizhnekamsk (TAIF-NK) Tatarstan 7.3 1 July 8, 2026 0 Operating (July 27, 2026)
Perm (Lukoil) Perm region 13.1 6 September 25, 2026 4 Halted (September 25, 2026)
Orsk Orenburg region 6.6 4 August 11, 2026 4 Halted (repairs up to six months) (August 13, 2026)
Omsk Omsk region 21 1 July 6, 2026 4 Unclear (restarted late July; later reported stopped) (September 15, 2026)
Tyumen (Antipinsky) Tyumen region 9 3 July 25, 2026 4 Halted (no restart reported) (July 28, 2026)
Ukhta (Lukoil) Komi Republic 4.2 2 February 12, 2026 1 Unknown (February 12, 2026)
Pervyi Zavod (Kaluga mini-refinery) Kaluga region 1.2 2 May 10, 2024 1 Operating (November 19, 2025)
Nevsky Mazut (St Petersburg) St Petersburg   1 January 31, 2024 1 Unknown (January 31, 2024)

Russian oil refineries hit by Ukrainian strikes, as of September 30, 2026. Non-exhaustive; strike counts are floors. Damage: 0 claimed, no damage confirmed; 1 fire or minor damage; 2 secondary unit damaged, output reduced; 3 primary distillation unit damaged; 4 refinery halted. Plants reported halted or cut in Sep 2026 account for about 121.6 mn t/yr, about 37% of the 327 mn t/yr nameplate total; up to 159.2 mn t/yr (49%) if earlier halts still hold. Russian officials put capacity under repair at about 10% (Deputy Prime Minister Alexander Novak, early September). Status mostly from unnamed industry sources cited by Reuters. Full sourced ledger: https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1AHjZvX9Hf-6jdKxcTE8Dw7f6O2_svY0kX54sqKPyU_s

This article was produced with the help of IntelliNews Lambda analytical tool

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