Squeezed by a sanctioned Russia to the north and a war prone Middle East to the south, the Middle Corridor that runs through Central Asia and the Caucasus is back in play as the main route connecting Europe to Asia by land and is already the only functioning corridor connecting the two by plane.

Turkey is seeking to turn a long-shuttered frontier crossing with Armenia into a strategic trade gateway linking Asia and Europe, as Ankara positions itself as a stable logistics hub amid mounting disruption to traditional global transport routes.

At the Alican border crossing, closed for 32 years, Turkish officials have begun installing passport control systems in anticipation of a reopening that could support a new road and rail corridor across the Caucasus. No date has been fixed, but officials say it could be opened “soon.”

Europe-Asia trade is about $3tn a year, and 90% goes by sea. The shortest marine journey takes about 40 days.

By contrast, the Middle Corridor linking China to Europe via the Caucasus and Turkey can cut the journey to only 12 to 15 days. And the project is backed by US President Donald Trump as part of peace efforts between Armenia and Azerbaijan, branded the “Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity” (TRIPP).

European officials have signalled support. EU commissioner Marta Kos this year described Turkey as “a critical partner”, calling expansion of the Middle Corridor a “game changer”.

At the centre of Ankara’s strategy are two projects: the Development Road, a planned road and rail network linking the Gulf to Europe via Iraq and Turkey, and the TRIPP, a US-backed route connecting Turkey and Azerbaijan through Armenia.

The Development Road would bypass the Strait of Hormuz and Suez Canal but remains in early planning stages, requiringbns of dollars in investment and passage through unstable Iraqi territory.

The TRIPP appears more advanced. Announced at the White House in February alongside a preliminary Armenia-Azerbaijan peace agreement, it is intended partly to help end their four-decade conflict. Turkey has indicated it would reopen its Armenian border once a final peace deal is signed.

Turkish construction groups including Kalyon have already begun work on the Azerbaijani side, according to Azerbaijani officials, while railway extensions are under way inside Turkey.

If completed, freight volumes on the Middle Corridor, which tripled between 2021 and 2025, could rise from 5mn tonnes annually to 20mn tonnes, according to experts. Yet significant obstacles remain, including slow ferry crossings on the Caspian Sea, incompatible rail gauges and cumbersome customs procedures.

JPMorgan Chase (JPM.N) recently described the Middle Corridor as a route “that everyone needs, but few choose to use”.

The TRIPP also bypasses Iran, exposing it to regional security risks, while Russia has voiced concern over shifting Caucasus trade patterns. Earlier this month President Vladimir Putin warned Armenia that Moscow could curb gas supplies if it continued to redirect trade towards Europe.

Opening up regional exports

Opening the Middle Corridor up will also release massive raw material exports out of Central Asia to the big international markets at a time when supplies are constrained and everyone is looking to diversify.

An open-access dataset from the Oxus Society maps more than $118bn in resource exports across the five Central Asian republics, offering a rare quantitative window into the region’s shifting place in Eurasian supply chains.

The public dataset mapping reserves, production, processing and export destinations for more than 100 minerals, hydrocarbons, chemicals, industrial materials and agricultural goods across Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan.

Its findings show Kazakhstan holds a dominant position in the region’s extractive economy. Kazakh oil alone represents 40% of all exports captured by the tracker, making it the single largest commodity flow in the dataset.

Turkmen gas is the second-largest export stream at 9.2% of the total, followed by Uzbek gold at 8.3%, Kazakh gold at 7.7% and Kyrgyz gold at 5.3%.

Hydrocarbons account for just over half of all tracked exports, valued at $61bn annually, according to the dataset. Critical mineral exports total $15.7bn per year, with Kazakhstan contributing $14bn of that figure.

Kazakhstan’s critical mineral exports are led by copper worth $7.3bn and uranium worth $4.2bn, reinforcing the country’s central role in regional supply chains.

The destination data also points to a more diverse external trade orientation than is often assumed. The European Union is the largest importing bloc, taking 29.1% of the total tracked exports.

China is the largest single-country importer, accounting for roughly one quarter of all exports covered by the tracker.

The United Kingdom and Switzerland each represent around 10% of imports, much of it linked to precious metals flows.

Russia directly absorbs 1.2% of the exports included in the dataset, a markedly smaller share than the European Union, China or key Western trading hubs.

Critical mineral trade flows present a different hierarchy. China absorbs just under half of Central Asia’s critical mineral exports, while Russia accounts for roughly one quarter.

European Union countries take 6.4% of the region’s critical mineral exports, with the United States accounting for 2.1%, according to the tracker.

The disparity helps explain increased Western engagement with Central Asia in recent years, particularly efforts to secure alternative supplies of strategic raw materials.

Oxus estimates that Tajikistan accounts for 20% of global antimony production, making it one of the world’s most important suppliers of a metal used in defence, electronics, and industrial applications. Tajik antimony flows overwhelmingly to France and Belgium, with Turkiye taking most of the remainder.

The tracker also attributes 12% of global antimony reserves to Tajikistan, along with 11.2% of global manganese reserves and 7.6% of global lead reserves. Even so, Tajikistan remains the smallest exporter in the regional dataset, with just $1.16bn in total resource exports.