Did Kazakhstan’s president, Kassym-Jomart Tokayev, just audition for the role of the next UN secretary-general?

Rumours have swirled for months that Tokayev – for many years a career diplomat and a former director-general of the UN Office in Geneva, prior to succeeding Nursultan Nazarbayev as leader of Kazakhstan in 2019 – has his eyes set on the role.

At the April 17 annual Antalya Diplomacy Forum (ADF2026) in Turkey, Tokayev stuck to his approach of staying schtum on the matter, in fact telling delegates: “Everyone is now discussing who will be the next UN secretary-general. I believe this is not so important. The real issue at hand is whether the system itself can survive in the form it exists today." 

There was, however, surely a feeling in the audience that Tokayev “doth protest too much”. If this was a man who has no interest in taking on the UN leadership role from Antonio Guterres, then he had an awful lot to say about what the person made sec-gen should do in the years to come. What’s more, during the gathering, there was a series of flattering comments from various fellow speakers that will do the chances of Tokayev, who turns 73 in May, no harm at all if there is to be a job interview.

At ADF2026, Tokayev called for a responsible approach to UN reform and praised the role of middle powers, such as Kazakhstan and Turkey, in bringing responsible decision-making to world affairs.

Tokayev, who last November raised eyebrows by managing to lavishly praise both Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin within just one week (see: COMMENT: Trump was “sent by heaven”, Russia is a “God-given” neighbour, says Kazakhstan’s president. What's cooking?), played the elder statesman skilled in diplomacy at the forum, saying: "In my view, we must be as pragmatic as possible when we speak about the need for UN reform.

“Otherwise, we will endlessly talk about being at a crossroads, about strategic values, and other issues. We hold numerous global and regional meetings, conferences, and so on. I also want to emphasise the important and positive role of so-called middle powers, which include Kazakhstan, Türkiye, and other countries.

“Of course, I am not going to boast that we are the best in the world. However, we demonstrate a high level of responsibility regarding global processes, both in practice and in diplomacy. Therefore, it is no exaggeration to say that today the middle powers often show greater responsibility than the major powers represented on the Security Council, which, unfortunately, often block solutions to key global problems."

Tokayev sat alongside Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan during a session at the forum (Credit: Akorda.kz).

Introducing a question, former Turkish foreign minister Mevlut Cavusoglu handily recalled Tokayev's extensive diplomatic experience, saying: "President Tokayev is one of the world's leaders. He knows the international system and, in particular, the United Nations. As you know, he served as UN deputy secretary-general. At that time, I was president of the Parliamentary Assembly of the Council of Europe.

“Working tirelessly for the benefit of brotherly Kazakhstan, our brotherly people, he is also doing everything possible to make the international system more effective and more relevant."

Tokayev took his cue, saying: "We talk about regional and global conflicts, but at the same time, as a former Minister of Foreign Affairs of Türkiye, you may have noticed that all major negotiations take place outside the UN platform and other major international structures. “People meet in certain capitals, in private conference halls, but not within UN walls. We do not see high-ranking UN officials acting as mediators in these conflicts. This is a serious problem. It is about the UN's diminishing role. I am very concerned about this, as I myself worked in the UN system and other international organisations.”

Tokayev also took the opportunity to throw another compliment the way of Trump, a notorious scathing critic of the worth of the UN, but also effectively the holder of a veto over sec-gen candidates. Said Tokayev: "I have just mentioned that it looks very strange and perhaps even absurd, but it is the Security Council that prevents the resolution of the most essential international issues. People, diplomats, or politicians are forced to negotiate within other platforms.

“By the way, this issue was very eloquently raised by President Donald Trump last September at the General Assembly session, and I fully agree with him. He criticised the non-working teleprompter and the escalator at the UN headquarters [in Turtle Bay, midtown Manhattan], saying that everything in the UN is broken.

“The most serious challenge, however, is that the entire peacekeeping process has been disrupted, both in the United Nations and in other structures. I am a committed supporter of multilateral diplomacy and still believe in the bright future of humanity united around the idea of justice as a central element of peacebuilding."

In February, Peter Leonard, writing for his Havli substack, weighed up whether the whispers about Tokayev and the UN could be true, observing: “As this now quite well-developed theory has it, Tokayev’s chances might be quite favourable. He is copacetic with Russian President Vladimir Putin and China’s Xi Jinping. And he has put in the hours pretending to look seriously upon President Donald Trump’s Board of Peace bauble. In the arithmetic of multilateral politics, three such nods would not hurt.

“The deeper appeal of the scenario, however, lies at home. A glide path to Turtle Bay would be tantamount to a gilded exit [from the Kazakh presidency]. Installed atop the UN system, Tokayev would be physically distant and diplomatically shielded from domestic score-settling. For a leader contemplating succession in a region where former presidents have not always enjoyed tranquil retirements, that is no small consideration.”

In mid-March, Reuters cited a "source in Kazakh diplomacy," as stating that Tokayev was "considering the possibility of running for the post of secretary general." However, in an interview with the Turkistan newspaper published two months previously, Tokayev said  he had no “desire to return to work at the UN, despite sounding outs from a number of countries.”

Guterres is expected to serve until the end of this year. Registration for candidates to succeed him ends this month. One presumes Tokayev has made his mind up.