French President Emmanuel Macron on March 2 signalled a significant shift in France’s nuclear posture, offering for the first time the possibility of “temporary deployments” of nuclear weapons to allied European countries as part of a broader effort to strengthen the continent’s deterrence against Russia.

Speaking at a naval base housing France’s nuclear-armed submarines, Macron described Russia as a profound and enduring threat to European stability. He pointed to what he called Moscow’s “slow and cruel war” in Ukraine, condemned its “brutal imperialism” and warned that Russia’s large nuclear arsenal and development of new dual-use hypersonic missiles blurred the line between conventional and nuclear warfare.

“In a volatile world, to be free, one must be feared,” Macron said, echoing rhetoric often associated with Moscow while arguing Europe must project greater strategic resolve.

To compensate for what he described as Europe’s conventional military shortfalls, Macron announced an increase in the number of French nuclear warheads. He also said Paris would no longer publicly disclose the size of its arsenal “to cut short any speculation”, signalling a move towards greater strategic ambiguity.

France’s nuclear doctrine has long rested on strict national control of its deterrent. Macron reaffirmed that any decision to use nuclear weapons would remain solely in French hands. But he simultaneously unveiled a framework he termed “forward deterrence”, inviting European partners to join a shared strategic dialogue and participate in supporting structures around France’s independent force.

According to Macron, Poland, the Netherlands, Belgium, Greece, Sweden and Denmark have already agreed to engage in this dialogue, joining Germany and the United Kingdom in shaping what he described as a more integrated European security architecture.

The initiative rests on three pillars designed to strengthen conventional capabilities and reduce reliance on nuclear escalation.

The first is early warning. Macron called for the development of an autonomous European capacity to detect missile launches from space under the JEWEL satellite programme, reducing dependence on US systems.

The second pillar focuses on air defence, including joint development and deployment of the SAMP/T NG system to protect against drones and missile threats – capabilities that have taken on heightened urgency amid Russia’s use of long-range strikes in Ukraine.

The third component centres on “deep strike” capabilities. France is working with Germany and Britain under the ELSA initiative to develop long-range conventional missiles that would provide Europe with credible strike options without crossing the nuclear threshold.

To institutionalise the new approach, Macron and German Chancellor Friedrich Merz signed a joint declaration establishing a high-ranking nuclear steering group tasked with coordinating strategic cooperation and doctrinal dialogue. The agreement includes immediate steps, such as German conventional participation in French nuclear exercises, aimed at reinforcing collective readiness while keeping any potential conflict below nuclear escalation.

The most striking element of Macron’s speech was a plan to disperse France’s nuclear-capable aircraft across allied territories. Drawing an analogy with France’s submarine-based deterrent, which relies on stealth and mobility, Macron said the country’s strategic air forces would be spread like an “archipelago of forces” across Europe.

By scattering aircraft across multiple allied bases, France would complicate any adversary’s targeting calculations and enhance the survivability of its deterrent. Analysts say such geographic dispersion could extend the practical reach of France’s nuclear forces while strengthening reassurance for front-line states.

Macron stopped short of offering a formal “nuclear umbrella” akin to that provided by the United States under Nato. He argued that an automatic guarantee would be “imprudent”. Yet he came close to expanding France’s implicit commitments by stating that the survival of its closest European partners is intertwined with France’s own vital interests.