Ukraine’s defensive war against Russia is “our war”, and its outcome will shape the geopolitical future of the European Union, Poland’s Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski said on February 26.

Presenting the government’s foreign policy objectives for 2026, Sikorski described Russia’s invasion as a test of Europe’s political maturity and strategic resolve at a time when the United States is shifting its focus from Europe towards the Western Hemisphere and Asia.

Poland will remain a close US ally, Sikorski said, but the partnership must be based on a clear assessment of interests. Political developments in Washington require careful observation, Sikorski said, adding that Poland would not be “suckers” when determining where, and whether, its priorities coincide with those of the United States.

Russia or the EU

“This war will decide which actor becomes the third pillar of the new global balance of power alongside the United States and China — whether it is Russia or the European Union,” Sikorski said.

Treating the conflict as distant or secondary would be a serious mistake, Sikorski said. A Russian victory would shift the burden directly to NATO’s eastern flank and increase the financial and military cost of deterrence for Poland and its allies, Sikorski said.

“If Ukraine loses, the danger from Russia will only grow ... In 2022-2025, the EU and its member states supported Ukraine with nearly €200 billion. Defending NATO's eastern flank in the event of a Russian aggression would have cost €1,200 billion at least,” Sikorski said.

To ensure that Russia does not consider attacking Poland or NATO in eastern Europe, Poland must maintain high defence spending and build an “army strong enough to deter Russia”, Sikorski said.

The minister cited defence spending in this year’s budget at 4.8% of GDP, the highest proportion in NATO, Sikorski said.

The EU’s SAFE programme, a €150bn facility offering low-interest loans to expand defence industrial capacity, is intended to complement national efforts, Sikorski said.

Nearly €44bn could be available to Poland, with 129 projects identified for parliamentary scrutiny and around 80% of the funds expected to support domestic industry, Sikorski said.

Sikorski warned the opposition and President Karol Nawrocki against blocking the SAFE programme in Poland.

Nawrocki and the Law and Justice (PiS) party have argued that SAFE would impose long-term financial commitments and political conditions, Sikorski said.

“The programme strengthens deterrence while building production lines at home,” Sikorski said, rejecting claims that it primarily benefits German firms.

The president has three weeks to sign or reject a law setting out the rules for spending Poland’s share of SAFE funds.

Opposition to SAFE reflects an anti-German narrative that portrays Germany as an adversary and the EU as an obstacle to Poland’s growth and sovereignty, Sikorski said.

“The EU is not a project of German domination. It was created to bind the strongest states with common rules and to prevent a return to the rivalry that led Europe into catastrophe,” Sikorski said.

A lesson from Brexit

Sikorski warned that so-called Polexit — Poland’s withdrawal from the EU — would amount to strategic self-harm. Leaving the bloc would weaken Poland economically and politically at a time of heightened geopolitical tension, Sikorski said.

“Take a closer look at the United Kingdom a decade after the Brexit referendum. According to conservative estimates, losses stemming from leaving the EU amount to around €200bn in 2020–2025. Today, a majority of Britons consider the decision to leave the bloc a mistake,” Sikorski said.

The EU increases Poland’s influence by embedding it within a larger decision-making structure and market, and reform should be pursued from within rather than through withdrawal, Sikorski said.

Welcome to the EU

Ukraine’s ambition to join the European Union forms part of that strategic calculation, Sikorski said. Enlargement would anchor democratic reform in Kyiv and extend stability eastwards, although accession will require meeting strict criteria and sustained reform, Sikorski said.

Integrating Ukraine into European structures enhances Poland’s long-term security, Sikorski said.

Sikorski also praised Ukrainians who have settled in Poland since Russia’s full-scale invasion. Ukrainians have high employment rates, contribute taxes and social security payments and help fill labour shortages across sectors from services to manufacturing, Sikorski said.

Their contribution to public finances exceeds the value of benefits received, Sikorski also said, adding that solidarity has strengthened, rather than weakened, the Polish economy.