An internal Vietnamese military document has revealed that, despite the recent upgrade of ties with Washington, Hanoi continues to harbour deep suspicions about the United States and is quietly preparing for a potential conflict scenario.

As reported by AP, the document that made its way into the public eye, compiled by Vietnam’s Ministry of Defence in August 2024 and cited by The 88 Project, describes the US as a “belligerent” power and warns of the risk of a future “war of aggression”. However, while the document in question does concede that an outright military confrontation is unlikely in the near term at least, it goes on to urge vigilance against what it views as US efforts to potentially manufacture a pretext for intervention.

More strikingly, the papers underscore the ruling Vietnamese Communist Party’s long-standing fear of a so-called “colour revolution”, in which external - read 'US' - forces might work to encourage popular unrest to undermine existing socialist rule. Similar concerns appear across multiple ministries it is understood, suggesting these views are not confined to any particular hardline military circles but are widely shared within the state apparatus of the country.

The revelations alo highlight a familiar contradiction in Vietnam’s foreign policy: outward engagement paired with deep internal mistrust of those being dealt with. In 2023, President Joe Biden elevated bilateral ties between Washington and Hanoi to a Comprehensive Strategic Partnership, placing the US alongside China and Russia as one of Vietnam’s most trusted partners. Yet internally in Hanoi, planners still portray Washington as an existential threat intent on reshaping Vietnam’s political system under a banner of democracy and human rights.

Regarding this, AP reports that analysts say this outlook reflects both a degree of historical memory and regime insecurity. Vietnam’s military leadership, shaped by years of conflict and decades of political distance from the US, remains wary of American intentions, even as economic and diplomatic cooperation has expanded rapidly in recent years.

China meanwhile, despite ongoing disputes in the South China Sea off Vietnam, is depicted in the documents as a strategic rival rather than a direct threat to Communist Party survival. This distinction reveals where Hanoi’s deepest anxieties lie: not in territorial pressure, but in future political destabilisation.

With the US now Vietnam’s largest export market and China to the north its leading trading partner overall, Hanoi faces an increasingly delicate balancing act. The leaked documents suggest that while Vietnam welcomes engagement to a degree, it remains determined to guard against any external influence that could challenge the ruling party’s grip on power.