Poland’s economy is expected to grow 3% in 2027, up from a previous forecast of 2.9%, although the activity will slow from 3.5% projected for this year as investment loses momentum following the expiry of EU recovery-fund spending, Fitch Ratings said on September 28.

The agency raised its 2026 growth forecast to 3.5% from 3.3%, citing strong second-quarter economic data and improved growth prospects for Germany and the wider eurozone.

Investment is expected to remain the main growth driver this year as spending from Poland’s EU-funded Recovery and Resilience Facility accelerates before the programme ends. The subsequent slowdown in investment growth is the main reason Fitch expects GDP growth to ease in 2027.

Fiscal policy is meanwhile likely to remain broadly accommodative, with significant budget consolidation unlikely before Poland’s parliamentary election in 2027.

Household consumption should remain strong, supported by robust credit growth and a still-tight labour market. Labour-market conditions have nevertheless started to soften, with unemployment edging higher, employment declining slightly and real wage growth continuing to slow.

Fitch consequently expects consumption growth to remain below its 2025 pace in both 2026 and 2027.

The rating agency expects inflation to reach 3.7% at end-2026 before slowing to 3% at end-2027. Fitch sees no further interest-rate changes this year and forecasts one 25-basis-point cut in 2027, taking the National Bank of Poland’s reference rate to 3.5%.

For 2028, Fitch trimmed its GDP growth forecast to 3.1% from 3.2%. It expects investment growth to moderate further to 3.6%, while private consumption increases 2.8%.