An extreme El Niño event could wipe at least 2% off Latin America and the Caribbean's gross domestic product over three years and push as many as 4.8mn more people into poverty by the end of the decade, the United Nations Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean (ECLAC) said in a new report.

The Santiago-based commission said half of the cumulative output loss would come in the first year after the event. It expects energy, fishing, agriculture and some infrastructure to suffer most. The warning came in a special report led by ECLAC Executive Secretary José Manuel Salazar-Xirinachs.

"Responses adopted once the emergency has been declared are considerably more expensive than preventive measures based on adequate anticipation. It is imperative that we shift from a response after losses to anticipatory management of climate risk," Salazar-Xirinachs said.

The report cited projections from the US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA). NOAA puts the chance of El Niño reaching very high intensity during the northern hemisphere's autumn and winter of 2026-2027 at more than 90%. It gives a 69% probability of a historic "Super El Niño", with sea surface temperature anomalies of more than 2.5C or 3.0C in the Niño 3.4 region.

ECLAC said human-driven climate change was amplifying natural variability. It noted that global average temperatures were 1.55C above pre-industrial levels in 2024.

The commission said the economic effects would vary widely across countries and would last. It expects lower real output, inflationary pressure and higher poverty, as falling household income feeds through the region's economies.

Power grids exposed

The report said the region's power sector was especially vulnerable. Hydropower accounts for more than 70% of electricity generation in several countries, and more than half of installed capacity is over 30 years old.

ECLAC estimated a 60% chance of below-normal rainfall in the October-December quarter. It said 31.1% of the region's territory was on high alert. Hotter weather would drive up demand for air conditioning in cities such as Lima, São Paulo and Mexico City while water supplies were shrinking. According to the report, that raises the risk of blackouts and higher operating costs.

Fisheries and farms at risk

A weaker upwelling of cold Pacific waters would reduce phytoplankton and disrupt the marine food chain, ECLAC said. That could send stocks of anchovy, sardine and hake deeper or push them to migrate. During earlier Super El Niño episodes, the regional fish catch fell 52.7% in 1972-1973 and 26.9% in 1997-1998. Those episodes also brought harmful algal blooms and widespread coral bleaching.

ECLAC cited analysis by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) showing a more than 70% probability of drought hitting agriculture in the coming months in several areas. These are Central America's Dry Corridor, Colombia, Venezuela, Cuba, the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The report said drought could threaten staple crops, animal feed supplies and rural incomes.

Call for anticipatory action

To stop climate shocks from turning into prolonged social and economic crises, ECLAC urged governments to adopt a 10-point policy package. It called for climate risk to become a permanent part of national policymaking and regulation. It also called for stronger protection of strategic infrastructure, wider early warning systems, and financial buffers such as reserve funds, catastrophe bonds and insurance.

The commission also recommended targeted cash transfers to vulnerable households and support for livelihoods in the Dry Corridor and fishing communities. It called for restoring reefs and mangroves and for flexible fishing quotas and closures. On energy and water, it urged countries to add more solar and wind power so grids depend less on rainfall, share energy reserves and manage cross-border river basins jointly. It also recommended curbing urban power demand during heatwaves.