A tentative thaw between Washington and Minsk is gathering pace. The US has lifted some sanctions after Belarus President Alexander Lukashenko release hundreds of political prisoners. But time for deal-making is running out. The Republicans are expected to be decimated at the upcoming midterm elections and that could leave US President Donald Trump hamstring and distracted.

The US-Belarus talks have take on the form of a “scripted” rapprochement in recent months, shaped as much by timing as by strategy, Artyom Shraibman wrote in a commentary for the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.

“By all indications, the Trump-Lukashenko bromance is still going strong,” pointing to a renewed US decision to ease sanctions on Belarusian state institutions, including its finance ministry and major banks. In exchange, Minsk has released 250 political prisoners, many of whom have been allowed to remain in the country.

Shraibman characterises the engagement as cyclical: “Every two or three months, Lukashenko warmly receives Trump’s envoys… later, the Belarusian leader releases a number of political prisoners, and [Washington] announces that new sanctions will be lifted.” He adds that “the scope of mutual concessions is gradually expanding,” with discussions now including a potential meeting between President Donald Trump and Belarusian leader Alexander Lukashenko, alongside the reopening of embassies.

The prospective deal could widen further. According to Shraibman, US officials have indicated that “the remaining political prisoners (about 900 people) must be released this year,” after which Washington would lift 80% of its sanctions. Lukashenko has signalled openness to a “big deal”, which Shraibman interprets as a direct exchange of prisoners for sanctions relief.

Yet the sustainability of this rapprochement remains uncertain. “After getting what he wants from the United States, Lukashenko may well return to his old ways,” Shraibman writes, particularly if US political attention shifts after congressional elections.

Russia remains the decisive constraint. “Belarus is so dependent on Moscow that its foreign policy manoeuvres are possible only insofar as Moscow looks the other way,” he notes. Both Minsk and Washington have avoided directly challenging that relationship, with Lukashenko framing his outreach as aligned with broader US-Russia dynamics.

Recent signals from Moscow suggest unease. Shraibman points to statements warning of Western interference in Belarus, adding that such moves may reflect “jealousy over the rapid thaw” or concern about geopolitical drift.

“Paradoxically, Russia’s anxiety gives Lukashenko cause to move not just cautiously, but quickly,” Shraibman writes, warning that shifting political dynamics in both Washington and Moscow could abruptly close the window for engagement.