Iran's currency, the rial, surpassed IRR2.69mn to the dollar on October 5, hitting its lowest-ever rate against the US currency. This is while its terminals loaded no crude in September and its oil minister abruptly quit the night before, forcing his subordinate to take his place. The pressure on the Pezeshkian administration is truly mounting; is something about to break in Tehran? 

The short answer is no, and assuming Tehran will cave in this situation shows a misunderstanding of the Islamic Republic's mindset. The longer answer is that the three things that have kept the economy running - oil revenue, a manageable currency and a steady hand on the oil ministry- are all failing at the same time, and the date by which the last cushion runs out is now close.

Let's start with oil exports, or lack thereof. Iran loaded no oil at its export terminals last month, the first time since the 1979 revolution, according to expatriate-based Homayoun Falakshahi, head of crude oil analysis at Kpler, on October 3.

Kpler's data showed no Iranian crude has crossed the US naval blockade line since July 14, and that loadings fell from 893,000 barrels per day in July to 156,000 b/d by August 17. According to Falakshahi, output is at about 1.8mn b/d, roughly enough for domestic consumption and about half the pre-war level. Gulf rivals have moved on without Iran, with their exports reaching 19.5mn b/d in the last week of September, above pre-war levels, Kpler data said. This does not bode well for Tehran's coffers, but "grey exports" are still rebadged as Iraqi, according to some sources.

Iran had about 90mn barrels afloat on tankers when the blockade began in mid-July, and American sources reported that this fell to 29mn barrels by early September. Kpler's current estimates are that the floating reserves will be used up by late October, and Fortune said payments for oil already delivered could trickle in until December. Iranian crude exports had already slumped as China cut imports.

Earlier, President Masoud Pezeshkian told Fox News that Iran could not even get its own money out of a country it had supplied, and even previously agreed barter deals have become quite impossible.

Iran's currency has also tanked miserably in recent weeks on the back of historically weakening rates. The rial stood at about IRR1.87mn to the dollar in early August, according to a USD/IRR chart tracking the open-market rate, and is now at IRR2,693,000, a fall of about 44% in two months. It jumped from roughly IRR2.36mn to roughly IRR2.56mn in three days at the end of September. Official figures show the strain. Iran's export price index rose 91.1% in rial terms in spring but only 1.9% in dollar terms, according to the Statistical Centre of Iran.

It doesn't get better either. Broad money supply was growing 51.6% a year at the end of September, the central bank governor said, up from 54.4% a month earlier. A locally made Dena Plus automatic car costs IRR33.6bn ($12,500), a premium of about 29% to the factory price. Local media reported inflation near 90% and an expected 5.4% GDP contraction this year to make matters worse for the administration.

Then there is the oil minister who quit late on October 4. Mohsen Paknejad resigned, and the head of the National Iranian Oil Company, Hamid Bovard, a career oilfield manager Paknejad himself appointed, is acting minister. In April, Paknejad said the blockade was failing to curb oil exports. Six months on, the terminals have loaded nothing. Iranian media have linked his departure to a cancelled contract to sell oil to seven Chinese refineries and 80mn barrels of oil whose fate they call unclear. Neither claim has been confirmed.

The crude oil export issue is an ongoing problem for the country, but there are green shoots with neighbouring countries bucking US threats of being disconnected; one oil trader, speaking on condition of anonymity, said the country would likely be switching to exports of  refined products, including petrol and diesel exports to regional countries, adding, "They'll fetch more dollars per barrel than crude will."

The person speaking with Newsbase.com said, "If it costs 3 cents per litre in Iran and you sell it next door to Turkmenistan for 20 cents, you've already made a huge profit margin," and that comment may be where Iran is attempting to plug the gaps, even with middlemen in regional countries making bank. 

However, even at that rate of export, the country is unlikely to earn close to the is May crude export income. 

But even with those exports the central problem is hard currency, and that is what is ending. Dollars from oil pay for imports of food, medicine and machinery, and households are already cutting meat, dairy and medicine.

The deputy agriculture minister said on October 5 that imported meat no longer has a price advantage, which means imports are no longer a cheap way to bridge a gap. The game of chicken between Tehran and Washington has taken its first victim in the form of Paknejad, but are any further dominoes likely to fall? Keep watching.