Brazil's electoral court has opened an investigation into whether a lavish carnival parade celebrating President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva crossed the line into illegal early campaigning, transforming what began as a festive tribute at Rio de Janeiro's famed Sambadrome into a full-blown political scandal.

The controversy erupted after top samba school Acadêmicos de Niterói concluded its parade late on February 15, presenting a spectacle that traced Lula's rise from poverty in Brazil's northeast to his current prominence as one of Latin America's most influential leaders. The show – featuring monumental floats, thousands of dancers and drums setting the rhythm with a display of lights, colours and choreography – was part of the Special Group parades that ran over three nights at the Sambadrome, the highlight of Brazil's most emblematic festival.

The 80-year-old leftist president attended alongside Vice-President Geraldo Alckmin and Rio Mayor Eduardo Paes, later descending to the Sambadrome floor to pose for photos as crowds sang his historic campaign jingle.

The Superior Electoral Court (TSE) is now examining whether the event constituted unlawful electioneering ahead of October's presidential election, according to CNN Brasil.

The opposition right-wing Novo party has vowed to seek Lula's disqualification on grounds of abuse of political and economic power, to be filed when he formally registers his candidacy by the August 15 deadline, Folha de S. Paulo reported.

"We are not dealing with a political debate, but with a legal matter," said Novo president Eduardo Ribeiro. "There was early election campaigning financed with public money. The consequence foreseen by law is clear and rigorous."

At the heart of the dispute is federal funding: each of the 12 Special Group samba schools received an equal share of sponsorship channelled through state tourism agency Embratur. Technicians at Brazil's Federal Court of Accounts had recommended blocking a BRL1mn ($191,23) transfer to the school, Folha reported.

Last week, the TSE rejected injunction requests from Novo and federal deputy Kim Kataguiri seeking to halt the parade, ruling that a pre-emptive ban would constitute prior censorship. However, judges pointed out in their ruling that the decision was "not an endorsement."

Minister Estela Aranha, appointed to the court by Lula in 2025, aid any possible electoral offence could be investigated retrospectively. TSE president Minister Cármen Lúcia offered a stark warning, comparing the situation to quicksand: "Anyone who goes in knows they might sink."

Minister André Mendonça warned that extensive use of sounds and imagery evoking the electoral contest could violate principles of equal treatment among candidates.

Legal experts, meanwhile, were divided. Guilherme Barcelos, a partner at Barcelos Alarcon Advogados, told Consultor Jurídico he saw "very strong indications of early electioneering" in the samba theme, which went beyond homage toward praising the government and citing campaign jingles. Fernando Neisser took a more relaxed view, arguing the lyrics lacked an explicit or implicit request for votes required under jurisprudence.

Some political analysts also questioned whether the parade would help Lula. João Santana, his campaign manager during his 2006 re-election bid, warned the event risked alienating moderate and evangelical voters, according to AP.

"The president and the first lady have dangerously approached this parade," Santana said. "This could all backfire."

It was the first time since the Getúlio Vargas' dictatorship era in the 1950s that a major Rio samba school had paraded in honour of a sitting president.

The controversy comes as Lula faces a tight race for re-election ahead of the high-stakes October 2026 presidential poll. A recent Meio/Ideia survey shows him in a technical tie with Senator Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of convicted former president Jair Bolsonaro, in second-round scenarios, with Lula at 45.8% against Flávio's 41.1%. The poll, conducted between January 30 and February 2 with 1,500 respondents, has a margin of error of 2.5 percentage points.

Lula is also tied with São Paulo Governor Tarcísio de Freitas and former first lady Michelle Bolsonaro, other possible conservative contenders, in head-to-head simulations. Against Tarcísio, Lula has 44.7% compared with 42.2%. Despite the encouraging result, Tarcísio has said he will not run as president and back Flávio, the Bolsonaro family's handpicked candidate.