Hungary will halt fuel supplies to Ukraine and will only resume delivery once Ukraine restarts oil transit via the Druzhba pipeline, which has been out of service since the end of January, Hungarian Foreign Minister Peter Szijjarto announced after a cabinet meeting on February 18.

Slovakia’s PM Robert Fico also announced a similar move, saying that Slovnaft refinery, owned by MOL, will halt diesel exports to Ukraine and redirect all processed products to the domestic market. In a separate decision, 250,000 tonnes of crude oil will be released.

According to Ukrainian fuel market expert Dmytro Lyoushkin, supplies from Slovakia and Hungary account for up to 10% of Ukraine’s total oil imports. The steps taken by the two countries will have a limited impact on fuel prices.

Russian oil supplies to Slovakia and Hungary via the Druzhba pipeline have been interrupted since the January attacks on Ukraine's energy infrastructure. Hungary and Slovakia both accused Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy of blocking the resumption of oil transit for political reasons, claiming that the damaged Druzhba pipeline on Ukrainian territory had already been repaired in the first week of February.

Szijjarto described the move as "political blackmail" aimed at pressuring Hungary to support Ukraine’s war effort and Hungary's EU accession. He claimed that without Russian energy, utility prices would surge.

Hungary’s chief diplomat accused the Ukrainian president of "direct and open interference" in the Hungarian elections by delaying the resumption of oil supplies to "whip up an oil supply crisis here."

Szijjarto stressed that Hungary’s energy security is not at risk as the country has more than three months of oil reserves and is arranging alternative maritime imports, with a shipment expected by mid-March.

Szijjarto also noted that he and his Slovak counterpart have notified the European Commission in a letter that the two countries were taking advantage of an earlier agreement with the EC, under which they may import Russian crude through maritime channels should pipeline deliveries become impossible.

MOL had begun arranging alternative maritime crude shipments via Croatia’s Omišalj port. The first cargoes are expected to arrive in early March, but take another 5-12 days to reach MOL’s refineries in Bratislava and near Budapest.

Oliver Hortay, head of energy and climate policy at Szazadveg, told broadcaster ATV that, under the sixth round of sanctions, both countries received an exemption from buying Russian crude oil through pipelines or maritime channels, and the US also granted Hungary at least a one-year exemption. Croatia, he argued, is not in a position to refuse to supply Hungary with Russian crude through the Adriatic pipeline.

Zagreb has offered to help both countries to secure their energy supplies.

Croatia’s economy minister, Ante Šušnjar, said in a post on X that Croatia stands ready to act responsibly and constructively, in full compliance with EU and US sanctions, to safeguard the security of supply.

Addressing Hungary's chief diplomat in his post, Šušnjar struck a sharply ironic tone, saying that it was "genuinely heartwarming to hear Hungary speak with such conviction about EU law, European values and binding obligations."

He recalled that decades earlier, Hungarian strategic thinking had supported strengthening the Adriatic pipeline route to prevent Central Europe from depending on a single eastern supply corridor. The Adriatic alternative offered a reliable, secure, and cost-effective solution that could meet the demand of Hungary and Slovakia while helping Europe reduce its exposure to Russian energy pressure, he said.

Erste Bank analyst Tamas Pletscher in a fresh note, flagged that the current suspension of oil deliveries could force MOL to reduce capacities at its Bratislava refinery by 30% as its Hungarian refinery is already operating below full capacity due to a fire in October. As for the impact of the disruption of oil supplies, Pletscher estimated thatfuel prices in Hungary could rise by up to 5%.

Pletser also weighed in on disputes over whether the Adriatic pipeline could cover the 40,000 tonnes per day required to supply MOL’s refineries. He argued that the bottleneck lies in an 80km section between Sisak and Virje in Croatia, and that MOL had previously called for a parallel pipeline to be built along the stretch to ensure stable supplies.

He recalled that earlier, MOL chairman-CEO Zsolt Hernadi indicated that the company’s domestic refineries could operate at 70-80% capacity utilisation until early 2027 if Russian crude oil is not available via the Druzhba pipeline. MOL’s goal is to complete the developments necessary to phase out Russian crude by the first half of 2027. As a result of these upgrades, both inland refineries will be able to operate at full capacity using crude oil delivered by sea through Croatia’s Adriatic pipeline

Hungary’s Energy Ministry said that a crisis working group convened on February 18 to approve a draft regulation on releasing 250,000 tonnes of crude from the strategic reserves, roughly 40% of the total 655,000 tonnes, which is enough to cover 96 days of imports. The decision was made at MOL's request.