US Secretary of State Marco Rubio has been conducting clandestine discussions with the grandson of Cuba's ageing former leader Raúl Castro as Washington explores options for political change on the island, according to people familiar with the matter cited by Axios.

The discussions with Raúl Guillermo Rodríguez Castro sidestep Cuba's formal leadership structure, underscoring the Trump administration's assessment that his 94-year-old grandfather, Fidel Castro's brother, wields more influence than the country's sitting president.

A senior Trump administration official characterised the engagement as exploratory rather than formal negotiations. "I wouldn't call these 'negotiations' as much as 'discussions' about the future," the official said. "Our position — the US government's position — is the regime has to go. But what exactly that looks like is up to [President Trump], and he has yet to decide."

The 41-year-old Rodríguez Castro, known as "Raulito", once worked in his grandfather's security detail and retains ties to key figures in GAESA, the vast military-run business empire that dominates significant portions of Cuba's economy.

Rubio's team believes Rodríguez Castro belongs to a younger generation focused on economic survival rather than revolutionary ideology, making him a more viable interlocutor, sources told Axios

The strategy echoes Washington's Venezuela playbook prior to the January 3 operation against Nicolás Maduro. US officials cultivated relationships with figures inside the Caracas government, then allowed certain members of the previous administration to remain in their posts after Maduro's capture, most notably vice president Delcy Rodríguez, who assumed the acting presidency and whom Trump has called a "terrific person."

That decision signalled to observers in Havana that Trump and Rubio are prepared to negotiate with rival factions within existing power structures rather than pursuing complete regime dismantlement. "They're looking for the next Delcy in Cuba," said one person familiar with the discussions.

People briefed on the conversations characterised them as warmer than anticipated, with both men concentrating on practical next steps instead of rehashing historical grievances.

The secretary of state has not engaged with President Miguel Díaz-Canel or other top officials in the government hierarchy, whom US policymakers dismiss as ideological hardliners unwilling to contemplate significant reforms. Washington's focus on the younger Castro reflects its judgment that genuine power remains concentrated in the Castro dynasty despite the official leadership structure. Cuba's government disputes that substantive talks are occurring.

The State Department declined to comment on whether Rubio has spoken with Rodríguez Castro.

The discussions unfold as Cuba confronts its most severe crisis since the revolution. The island's power grid is failing, hospitals have curtailed surgical procedures, food and fuel have become increasingly scarce, tourism has evaporated and uncollected rubbish accumulates on urban streets.

Mike Hammer, head of the US diplomatic mission in Cuba, claimed last week that Washington was holding discussions with high-ranking government figures, hinting a political transition is imminent. He suggested Cuba had a figure equivalent to Venezuela's Delcy Rodríguez but declined to identify the individual. "Yes, there is a Delcy Rodríguez," Hammer stated.

The economic deterioration accelerated dramatically after Trump's Venezuela operation severed Caracas's subsidised oil supplies to Cuba. The president subsequently signed an executive order on January 29 threatening tariffs on countries that provide petroleum to the island, prompting Mexico to suspend deliveries.

Shipping data provider Kpler estimates Cuba has merely days of petroleum reserves remaining. The island has received just one oil shipment so far in 2026, a precipitous decline from already insufficient supplies during 2025.

Last week, Cuban aviation authorities informed international airlines that jet fuel would be unavailable at all airports until further notice, dealing a severe blow to the tourism sector that provides crucial foreign exchange. The government has implemented emergency measures including a four-day working week for state employees, restrictions on fuel sales, and closure of tourist resorts despite the high season.

Power generation from ageing Soviet-era oil-fired plants has been severely curtailed, with the state electricity operator reporting that 101 distributed generation facilities sit idle due to fuel shortages, eliminating 927 megawatts of capacity. Prolonged daily blackouts have become routine.

Cuba's leadership took careful note of the Venezuela operation's outcome. US officials say the mission killed at least 32 Cuban intelligence operatives and military advisers protecting Maduro while American forces sustained no losses, showcasing both Washington's operational prowess and its readiness to employ military force in the region.

White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said on February 18 that Cuba must make "very dramatic changes very soon". She did not specify measures the US might implement but added that Washington was monitoring Havana's decisions closely. "They are a regime that is falling apart. The country is collapsing," Leavitt said.

In a similar vein, Trump told reporters aboard Air Force One on February 16 that Cuba "is right now a failed nation, and they don't even have jet fuel to get for airplanes to take off". He added: "We're talking to Cuba right now ... and they should absolutely make a deal."

Rubio, the first US-born Cuban to serve as secretary of state, has made no secret of his desire to topple the communist regime. He told Congress last month: "We would love to see the regime change."

However, Trump has reportedly not yet decided on a specific course of action, with his attention currently directed toward the conflicts in Iran and Ukraine rather than Cuba, where Rubio continues developing policy alternatives, sources told Axios.

Unlike Venezuela, with its vast oil reserves and functioning opposition parties, Cuba offers Washington fewer levers for engineering change, hampered by decades of economic mismanagement and a fractured civil society.

Breaking with years of defiance, President Díaz-Canel has recently indicated willingness to open dialogue with Washington, describing "economic strangulation by the world's leading power". But he has also launched military drills to prepare for potential instability, with Cuba's National Defence Council approving plans to shift the country into a "state of war" posture last month.

The communist-run island, subjected to crippling US sanctions for over 60 years, now faces total isolation as its energy infrastructure collapses and the economy teeters on the brink. Whether Rubio's backchannel discussions with the Castro family will produce a negotiated transition or escalate into further confrontation remains uncertain.