BEYOND THE BOSPORUS: Defiant Ozel declares Erdogan will be ousted by 60% of voters in snap poll

The latest declaration from Turkey’s ousted main opposition leader Ozgur Ozel is that in the event of a snap election, he would be able to field a candidate for the presidency who would win with 60% of the vote. Ozel made the remark while speaking to local news portal T24 on May 25.
On May 21, a dramatic judicial intervention split Ozel’s Republican People’s Party (CHP) in two, locking Ozel out of the party headquarters in Ankara in the process.
During an interview held at Ozel’s office in the Turkish parliament – where visitors now see a makeshift sign reading “CHP Group Chairman”, instead of a sign saying “CHP Party Chairman” – Gokcer Tahincioglu of T24 posed the obvious question: “If there is the possibility of a snap election, will you still not form a[nother] party ahead of it?”
“We will fight against this [court-imposed] nullity on the party until the very end, but let no one worry about the possibility of a snap election either,” Ozel replied, adding: “We will field our presidential candidate and get [her/him] elected with 60% of the vote.”
Who would stand?
Whether Ozel’s confidence can lift the morale of Turks disturbed by the country’s latest political developments is rather questionable. The CHP presidential candidate, Istanbul mayor Ekrem Imamoglu, has been behind bars since March 2025.
The move against Imamoglu also saw the voiding of his university diploma. Any application from Imamoglu to run in a presidential election against Turkey’s leader of 23 years Recep Tayyip Erdogan would therefore not be accepted by the Supreme Election Council (YSK) because a university degree must be held by any candidate for the presidency.
Ozel did not elaborate on whether the candidate he has in mind was Imamoglu or someone else. He simply said, “We will field our presidential candidate”.
After Imamoglu was jailed, Ozel insisted that the mayor would remain the CHP presidential candidate.
The new developments triggered by the court ruling mean that Ozel has lost his political post, though, importantly, he remains out of jail. The latest situation as regards the CHP presidential candidate as outlined by Ozel is blurred. There are significant uncertainties.
Sticking to surrealism
Ever since he took over the CHP leadership post in November 2023, Ozel has built up a track record in maintaining surrealist stances.
For instance, question the CHP's quarter of a century out of power and a party official will, curiously, invite you to avoid opposing the opposition.
According to CHP officials, politics is a business of assertiveness and politicians are supposed to motivate their supporters by providing them with hope (albeit, as it always turns out, baseless hope at the level of a super-reality, or surreality).
The success of the strategy is not to be questioned. (Well, the whole planet is witnessing the outcomes of such postures). And Ozel’s words in his first interview since the court stripped him of his post underline how he has not compromised on the CHP’s surrealistic principles.
Escalation “was not expected”
Tahincioglu, a veteran journalist, also asked Ozel whether he expected the escalation of events (particularly those staged on May 24 by police raiding the CHP HQ) to the level experienced.
It’s a critical question as the opposition’s voters naturally expect some wisdom and vision from the person who serves as the main opposition party leader in the country.
“Seeing the scene [staged in September 2025 at the CHP’s provincial headquarters] in Istanbul when Gursel Tekin [who was appointed by a court as a trustee at CHP Istanbul] tried to enter there, I thought, ‘They won't do this again, they won't try to enter the [CHP’s headquarters] building [in Ankara]’,” Ozel responded.
“Anyway, no one with a shred of legal knowledge expected this whole [absolute] ‘nullity’ issue [that cancelled the November 2023 CHP party congress in full and re-instated Ozel’s predecessor Kemal Kilicdaroglu as party chair],” he added.
“We didn’t expect yesterday [the police raid on May 24], we didn’t expect this much. We also never thought that colleagues we spent years with [Kilicdaroglu and CHP officials and MPs supporting him] could be part of such a malicious plan,” Ozel also said.
Refusal to recognise death of the law
Throughout the past decade, despite the actions of the government, it has proved impossible to convince CHP politicians that not a shred of legal knowledge is relevant in the country anymore.
The reason behind the demonstrated obstinacy is simple. If the CHP acknowledges the reality, then people would demand that they take the necessary action against it. And the action in question does not include sitting in an office in the parliament building, talking tripe and playing nonsensical games of politics.
It follows that Ozel and his officials convinced themselves that “they won’t try to enter the HQ”. They sat there, spoke with defiance and held rallies. Fat lot of good that did.
“Two CHPs”
Tahincioglu asked whether Ozel thinks that “they” want him to leave the CHP to form a separate party.
“The situation is exactly like that and I would love to hear otherwise. For instance, if Mr Kemal [Kilicdaroglu] had come to make a compromise and declared that he would attend a quickly called party congress, we would have been open to any formula,” Ozel replied.
“I say this with great sadness: as long as we stand here [at the parliament] with the MPs and public acceptance, there are now two CHPs. One is the SCHP, [‘S’ stands for Secilmis, or “Elected”] the Elected CHP, and the other is the Appointed CHP,” he concluded.
Ozel also discussed the conspiracies critics see in the court ruling that, as usual, fails to pay due respect to “a shred of legal knowledge”. He also reiterated that he would never abandon Imamoglu. (The full text of the interview is available here.)
Tahincioglu, a much experienced courthouse reporter, has written a separate article on the irregularities and conspiracies demonstrated in the court ruling. (It is also available here).
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