Allegations of foreign interference involving an Israeli private intelligence firm cast a shadow over Slovenia’s closely contested parliamentary election, highlighting how geopolitical tensions in the Middle East are increasingly impacting domestic politics in Europe.

Prime Minister Robert Golob’s liberal Freedom Movement narrowly won the March 22 vote with 28.62%, just ahead of Janez Janša’s conservative Slovenian Democratic Party (SDS), which secured 27.95%. The fragmented outcome has left coalition talks uncertain.

The campaign was partly shaped by a late-stage scandal involving alleged wiretaps and the reported presence of an Israeli intelligence-linked company in Ljubljana. The controversy began with the release of covert recordings that appeared to implicate figures close to the government in informal political dealings. Initially, the material was seen as potentially damaging for Golob’s camp.

However, as pointed out by analyst Marko Gruden from the Slovenian Institute dr. Janez Evangelist Krek (IJEK) interview with bne IntelliNews, the narrative then shifted to foreign interference in the election. 

“Instead of addressing the content of these recordings and the alleged corruption, the entire mainstream Slovenian media space, certain non-governmental organizations close to the left-wing political option, and the government are focusing mainly on diverting attention to the issue of foreign interference in the elections,” Gruden told bne IntelliNews. 

A commentary on the situation from the Centre for Eastern Studies also notes that the scandal “ultimately… backfired on the SDS,” after it emerged that “representatives of the Israeli firm Black Cube had been in contact with Janša.”

Janša later acknowledged that he knew one of the firm’s executives and had met him “socially,” though his party denied any formal links.

Slovenia’s intelligence agency also documented the presence of Israeli operatives in the country, raising concerns about election interference. According to the report, this included “foreign interference in the campaign, including bot attacks.”

The timing of the revelations — just days before the vote — may have influenced public sentiment in a country where attitudes toward the Middle East conflict are politically sensitive.

Middle East politics spill into Europe

The OSW analysis suggests that the controversy resonated particularly strongly because of Slovenia’s public opinion, which it says “tends to sympathise with Palestine”. 

In that context, “the involvement of the Tel Aviv-based private firm may have been perceived as interference in national sovereignty and an attempt to oust one of the EU’s most outspoken critics of Israel,” the report adds.

In September 2025, Slovenia banned Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu from entering the country, deepening its diplomatic rift with Israel and reinforcing its support for Palestinian statehood.

In July, Slovenia previously declared two far-right Israeli cabinet ministers persona non grata, citing their rhetoric and policies toward Palestinians.

In August, it became the first European country to impose a comprehensive arms embargo on Israel, halting all exports, imports and transit of weapons and military equipment. Days later, the government announced a ban on imports of goods produced in Israeli settlements in the occupied Palestinian territories, saying the trade of such goods violated international law.

At the time, Golob said the steps reflect “Slovenia’s duty to act when international humanitarian law is breached,” while stressing that Ljubljana supports a negotiated two-state solution.

By contrast, Janša has positioned himself as a supporter of Israel in European politics. In 2024, his SDS and New Slovenia (NSi) asked the Constitutional Court to assess the constitutionality of the government’s decision to recognise Palestine.

The election results also point to a divided electorate. Alongside the two leading parties, five other political groups entered Slovenia’s 90-seat parliament, complicating efforts to form a stable government.

Golob’s Freedom Movement has a clearer path to forming a coalition but lacks a majority with its existing allies. Meanwhile, Janša’s options appear limited despite his party’s strong showing.

The near tie between the two leading parties and the fragmented parliament will make coalition-building difficult, with smaller parties potentially playing a decisive role. The populist Resni.ca party has emerged as a possible kingmaker, while the Democrats, a breakaway faction from the SDS, could also be pivotal.