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Mark Buckton - Taipei

Argentina’s meltdown, Asia’s dilemma

Argentina has been here before - the country having endured multiple financial meltdowns over the last half-century - each one leaving scars on its once vibrant society and economy.
Argentina’s meltdown, Asia’s dilemma
September 23, 2025

Argentina has been here before – and at some point in the future may well venture back this way again given its past record. The country has endured repeated financial meltdowns over the last half-century, each one leaving scars on its once vibrant society and economy.

Today’s predicament of runaway inflation, a collapsing currency – again - and dwindling reserves, comes wrapped in a weary familiarity.

What is less certain this time out though is whether this latest financial fracas will remain confined to South America, or whether the tremors will be felt across the world, including here in Asia.

So far, few in Asia bar financial analysts and governments with links to the region have really taken any interest, but with the US and reportedly UK ready to step in and help, it is only a matter of time before this trickles down to affect Asian markets.

Truth be told, on the face of it, Argentina matters little to Asia. Trade flows are modest, financial links are limited, and no major Asian bank is thought to have significant exposure to Buenos Aires’ financial ups and downs.

Yet financial crises in recent years have spread just as much by way of sentiment as via direct connections – and sentiment can be a fragile thing.

Investors who see chaos in one emerging market often begin to question the stability of others as was seen during the late 90s Asian financial crisis, when what began as pressure on the Thai baht cascaded across the region, toppling currencies from Jakarta to Seoul. Similarly, the collapse of Argentina’s peso in 2001 contributed to a reassessment of risk in emerging markets across Asia, even though the direct ties to many countries were negligible.

At present, while Asia in many ways is booming, a closer look at economies around the region hints at cracks having been papered over in some areas. Currencies such as the Indonesian rupiah and Philippine peso have already been struggling against a strong US dollar, while the Indian rupee has repeatedly brushed against record lows. The Taiwanese dollar too has been on a topsy-turvy ride over the past few months. As such, a sudden withdrawal of funds from emerging markets, triggered by alarm over Argentina, could well deepen those pressures – and expose the cracks.

Central banks in Asian capitals might then be forced to spend foreign reserves or even raise interest rates, neither of which would be welcomed.

Food security is another channel of concern. Argentina is one of the world’s largest exporters of soy beans and maize – both of which are crucial to wider Asian dietary preferences. If financial chaos disrupts shipments or in some way discourages production, global prices would likely rise.

For China, the biggest buyer of soy beans in the world – and buyer of 0ver 7mn tonnes from Argentina last year - that would add to existing tensions around food supply. For Japan and South Korea, both large-scale importers of feed and foodstuffs, inflationary pressures could once again complicate monetary policy debates at a time of ongoing political frailty for the ruling parties of both nations.

Elsewhere in Asia, yet another sovereign debt crisis in South America making headlines will draw attention to countries close to home facing similar dilemmas. Sri Lanka and Pakistan have already endured very painful and very recent bailouts, while Vietnam’s corporate bond market has shown signs of fragility in the past few weeks.

If Argentina struggles to convince investors, and perhaps more importantly the IMF, that it has a credible plan, comparisons may be drawn elsewhere, raising borrowing costs and unnerving governments half a world away.

For now, Asia is playing a game of wait and see. Just how US, and perhaps European assurances of help pan out in the weeks ahead will be watched closely in capitals everywhere. If the region has learnt one thing in recent decades it is that financial crises rarely travel in straight lines, and because of this, Asian financial watchers and policymakers must be ready.

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