US envoy Steve Witkoff is in St Petersburg to present Vladimir Putin with an updated proposal to end the war in Ukraine, a US official said on October 20. The proposal follows talks with Ukraine and European leaders in Oslo.

Witkoff and Jared Kushner held talks with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy, Norwegian Prime Minister Jonas Gahr Store and Finnish President Alexander Stubb in the Norwegian capital on October 20. A US official called the meeting "very productive and constructive", said Ukraine "brought forward new ideas and proposals, which were discussed in detail" and claimed the parties had made "meaningful progress in aligning on a coordinated approach to engaging Russia and advancing the diplomatic process". Kushner is joining the Putin meeting virtually.

US President Donald Trump wants a deal before the midterm elections in November. He promised during his campaign to end the war in 24 hours, Republicans are polling badly, and since the diesel deal he struck with Moscow, Washington has leaned on Kyiv rather than on the Kremlin.

The Oslo talks covered a comprehensive peace framework including long-term security guarantees for Ukraine, a post-war economic and prosperity plan and a "broader European security architecture designed to create lasting stability", the official said. There is "strong alignment at the working level" between the US, Ukraine and Europe, he added, and "a shared commitment to finding practical solutions to end the war".

The Conservative Treehouse, a US political blog, noted that Store and Stubb, who had both publicly set themselves against the Trump administration's effort, were subdued at the closing press conference and now say staying engaged with Washington matters.

Zelenskiy said the latest US proposal carries guarantees modelled on Nato's Article 5 and that Witkoff would put the document to Moscow.

"We discussed NATO, Article 5 and Article 5-like guarantees. Different types of security guarantees are included in the document, which Steve will share with the Russians, and we will hear their feedback," he said after the talks, adding that he was "grateful to the American side for emphasising once again that they will be strong".

A security guarantee is the one element of the Trump-brokered 27-point peace plan that has survived the year, and the thing Zelenskiy has demanded most consistently. Draft US guarantees offering Article 5-style protections were already on the table in November 2025. Zelenskiy has hinted he could give up Donbas in return for one he can believe in.

Zelenskiy also said the US has resumed intelligence sharing and ballistic-missile alerts after he spoke to Secretary of State Marco Rubio, and that the two discussed restoring stable Starlink service and supplying Patriot missiles. Washington will propose a trilateral meeting of Trump, Zelenskiy and Putin, Politico reported.

Ukraine has run out of almost everything else. Its interceptor missiles have run dry, Zelenskiy has been sounding increasingly desperate as the hunt for air-defence ammunition fails, and Russian missiles have been arriving unannounced since Washington turned off the satellite feed.

Trump set out a bleak account of Ukraine's position in an interview with CBS. Russia "would like to get it done" but is "a big machine" that keeps grinding forward, he said.

"They've taken a very large piece of land, and, you know, you can say that Ukraine is doing well or poorly, but the land gets bigger and bigger all the time, week by week," Trump said. "They have an unlimited supply of people, whereas Ukraine, as you know, is..."

"Russia, though, is a giant nation. Ukraine is not," he said. "Zelenskiy has to want to settle this war, and if he doesn't, I think it's going to be a very bad thing. We have given tremendous amounts to Ukraine. We've got nothing back other than high diesel."

European money is what lets Kyiv say no to Washington, and the EU's foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas has said Europe has to be at the negotiating table because it is Europe that decides on sanctions relief. "We also have demands of Russia, and we are not going to give anything away for free," she said.

Kyiv has already shown it will ignore an instruction from the White House. Washington refused Kyiv any reward for halting its drone campaign against Russian oil refineries, the strikes resumed within days, and a large attack set the St Petersburg oil terminal ablaze on October 18, killing one person and injuring five.

Europe has no one talking to the Kremlin at all. The hunt for a European mediator has gone nowhere - Putin's own suggestion was his old friend, former German chancellor Gerhard Schroeder, which no EU capital will wear.

Time is short whatever Putin says in St Petersburg. The heating season has started with Russia trying to freeze Ukraine into submission, the grid is under nightly attack and Ukraine's steel output could fall to zero in 2027.

A real guarantee underwritten by the West was also the heart of the deal thrashed out in Istanbul in March 2022 and never signed. Whether what is left of the country ends up looking like Finland or Afghanistan may turn on what Witkoff hears from Putin.