Will the GCC be drawn into the war and unite against Iran? The foreign ministers of Turkey, Saudi Arabia, Egypt and Pakistan met in Riyadh on March 18 to discuss a possible security pact and taking up arms against Iran as it continues to target their oil and gas cash cows. The Turkish foreign minister says the four countries are exploring how to combine their strengths amid growing regional tensions and the war in Iran.

Turkey has intensified efforts to establish a regional security pact with Pakistan and Saudi Arabia, as Ankara pushes for greater defence cooperation among key Muslim-majority states, Middle East Eye reported on March 21.

The Gulf states are becoming increasingly alarmed by the escalating conflict next door drifting towards the point where they will take matters into their own hands.

Saudi analysts say the ultimate nightmare for Iran is, if Saudi Arabia enters the war, it could activate a defence pact with Pakistan and rally numerous Muslim nations against Tehran in a regional coalition.

According to reports, the idea is being actively considered. However, most of the Arab states do not do not want to see Iran collapse completely due to the possibility of civil war breaking out that would further destabilise the region further. They would prefer the Islamic Republic to survive, albeit in a much-weakened form.

Discussions over the proposed arrangement have been under way for nearly a year, according to a Pakistani minister, cited by Middle East Eye. Turkish officials have also explored expanding the initiative to include Egypt, aiming to create a broader platform for coordination on defence industry collaboration and regional security issues.

Turkish Foreign Minister Hakan Fidan said the initiative reflects a wider push for regional autonomy in addressing security challenges. “We are exploring how, as countries with a certain degree of influence in the region, we can combine our strengths to solve problems,” he said on March 21 at the meeing.

Fidan added that Ankara has long advocated for greater regional dialogue. “Above all, we have for some time been saying that the countries of the region should come together, hold discussions and develop ideas. We emphasise regional ownership,” he said.

The proposed framework would stop short of a formal military alliance comparable to Nato, according to sources familiar with the discussions, but would instead focus on facilitating cooperation in defence production and strategic coordination.

Talks have gained urgency amid heightened regional tensions, thanks to the US-Israeli war on Iran and Tehran’s retaliatory strikes on Gulf countries.

“In principle, we need to recognise this: either we come together and learn to solve our own problems ourselves, or an external hegemon will come and either impose solutions that serve its own interests, or do nothing while preventing others from acting,” Fidan said.

The meeting and the discussion were partly born of US President Donald Trump’s failure to either bring a quick end to Operation Epic Fury or reopen the Strait of Hormuz, despite repeated boasting of the power of the US military machine. Moreover, scepticism is rising after Trump called on Nato allies to send their navies, a call that was roundly ignored. Trump has been reduced to bullying his partners to try and rally support, threatening to pull out of Nato, annex Greenland or simply walk away and leave “those that use the Straits” to sort out the mess.

The US has badly damaged its credibility in the Middle East, say analysts. Most of the countries have been actively promoting images of islands of stability and prosperity in an effort to attract tourism and foreign direct investment (FDI) under their “vison” strategies. That image has been comprehensively wrecked after Trump began his military adventure, without consulting any of this Middle Eastern partners.

Despite Ankara’s criticism of Israel as a principal driver of the conflict, a joint statement issued in Riyadh by participating countries on March 18 focused more sharply on Iran, condemning its attacks on Gulf states while referring only briefly to Israel’s “expansionist” policies in Lebanon.

Fidan said trust and coordination would be essential to the initiative’s success. “We need to learn to trust one another. We need to act together on certain issues. We need to be able to adopt a common stance,” he said.

Turkey has expanded its domestic defence industry in recent years, while Pakistan’s nuclear capabilities, Saudi Arabia’s growing role in advanced technologies and Egypt’s military strength position them as significant regional actors. Ankara and Cairo signed a bilateral military agreement on February 14, including a $350mn export deal covering ammunition and production lines, during President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s visit to Egypt.

Pakistan holding the hot potato

Among the participants, Pakistan faces the most difficult strategic dilemma. If Saudi Arabia were to enter a war with Iran, existing military ties could create pressure to offer support. However, such a scenario would run counter to Pakistan’s broader strategic priorities and the original intent of its regional partnerships.

Islamabad is unlikely to pursue a full-scale conflict with Iran, given competing security concerns with India and Afghanistan. China, which is Pakistan’s main arms supplier, would also object strongly were Pakistan to join the war on Israel’s side tougher with the US and KSA.

If Pakistan were to become involved at all, any action would likely be limited in scope, potentially focused on border regions such as Iran’s Balochistan province, where militant groups hostile to Pakistan operate.