Poland's GDP grew 3.5% year-on-year (y/y) in the first quarter, according to seasonally adjusted preliminary data released by the statistical office GUS on June 1.

The result, which revises a flash estimate released by GUS in mid-May upward by 0.1pp, follows an expansion of 3.7% y/y in the fourth quarter, as household consumption and investment both weakened, although the slowdown varied against expectations.

“We feared the slowdown in investment would be deeper than it actually was, while private consumption proved slightly weaker than we had expected,” Erste said in a note.

Investment rose 2.4% y/y in the first quarter, slowing from 6.6% y/y in Q4. Household consumption eased to 3.3% y/y from 4.3% y/y in the previous quarter.

Stronger domestic demand continued to lift imports, while weaker external conditions weighed on exports. As a result, net exports were neutral for GDP growth in Q1, after subtracting 0.3pp in the preceding quarter.

The start of the year brought a slowdown in economic growth, but Poland's GDP is still expected to grow 3.4% this year, slightly below the 3.6% expansion recorded in 2025, analysts say.

“We forecast private consumption growth to ease to around 3% from 3.7% a year earlier, weighed down by slower wage growth and a likely pullback in durable goods purchases amid uncertainty over the Middle East and higher fuel prices, which limit room for other spending,” ING said in a note.

“GDP growth should instead be supported by faster investment growth, which we estimate could reach nearly 8% this year thanks to the use of Recovery and Resilience Facility funds and rising absorption of cohesion funds,” ING also said.

On a quarterly basis, the economy expanded by 0.6% in seasonally adjusted terms in January-March, down from 1% q/q in Q4, GUS also said.

In unadjusted terms, GDP increased 3.5% y/y in the first quarter, compared with 4.1% y/y in the preceding three months.