Turkey’s official gross domestic product (GDP) expanded by 2.5% y/y in 1Q26 after growing by 3.4% in 4Q25 and 3.7% in 3Q25, the Turkish Statistical Institute (TUIK, or TurkStat), said on June 1.

It is not advisable to plan, price or draw inferences based on TUIK data. There is widespread concern about the reliability of Turkey’s official data series.

On a seasonally and calendar adjusted basis, TUIK’s GDP series showed growth of 0.1% q/q in 1Q following 0.4% q/q in 4Q.

On course for around another 3.5% in 2026

In September, Turkey’s government provided an official GDP growth target of 3.8% y/y for 2026 in its latest medium-term economic programme (OVP).

For 2025, the GDP growth figure was released at 3.6%.

Prior to the appointment of the current orthodox economy management officials in June 2023, Turkey used to release GDP growth figures in the range of 5-10%.

Aware of the need to find a middle path between the finance industry, which demands recession as proof of a tight monetary policy, and President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who demands expansion, the economy management 'department' took the GDP growth figures down into the 3%s.

Also notable is that the civil servants of economic management tend to release a lower figure in the initial digestion, before revising it up in following releases. The media reports the initial figure, but fails to follow up on the revisions. As a result, a lower figure is circulated for wide consumption while the GDP growth numbers are in the final analysis kept in relatively better shape.

On September 1, TUIK will release its 2Q26 data.