Russia has lost over $1bn in oil export revenues Ukraine’s week-long attacks on its two most important Baltic Sea ports of Ust-Luga and Primorsk. Weekly shipments through both ports have fallen by two-thirds.

However, as Ukraine lacks the powerful missiles Russia has been using against its power infrastructure, the outage is expected to be short lived. The damage, while significant, has not shown up in the export statistics yet and is offset by the climb in prices and the disappearance of the discounts that Russia’s oil majors have been forced to offer to sell oil under the sanctions regime. Currently, the income Russia earns from oil exports has almost doubled to some $250mn a day, according to reports.

Four tankers loaded in Primorsk last week, down from 10 the previous week, and two in Ust-Luga, down from eight. Russia's total seaborne shipments fell by a whopping 1.75mn bpd this week, to 2.32mn bpd. This has already impacted the four-week rolling average: minus 280,000 bpd, to 3.31mn bpd, a two-month low.

The rise in oil prices due to the Gulf War offset the drop in shipments—$1.79bn compared to $1.7bn in the previous week (averaged over four weeks). Without averaging, the estimated value of oil shipped for the week fell from $2.45bn to $1.44bn. Urals crude in the Baltic cost $73 per barrel, while for delivery to India, it was almost $98 per barrel.

Thus, Moscow lost approximately $1bn in additional oil revenue this week, the agency calculated. How the ports were attacked

Since the middle of last week, Ukrainian drones have been striking Russian Baltic export ports every two days.

Constant strikes

Drone strikes targeting Russia’s Baltic ports of Primorsk and Ust-Luga have caused repeated disruptions to fuel export infrastructure between March 22 and March 31, according to Reuters reporting and satellite data.

The first reported strike took place overnight on March 22 to March 23, affecting both Primorsk and Ust-Luga. Reuters reported on March 23 that shipments from Primorsk were fully halted following the attack, while operations at Ust-Luga resumed shortly afterwards, The Bell reports.

A second strike on Ust-Luga occurred on March 25 and caused more significant damage. Reuters reported that Novatek’s stable gas condensate and naphtha loading complex was disabled, along with the oil product unloading rack at the adjacent terminal operated by JSC Ust-Luga Oil. The reported damage was corroborated through geolocated video footage showing fires at the site.

On March 27, another strike targeted the same loading complex. A day earlier, an attack was reported on Surgutneftegaz’s refinery in Kirishi, which is understood to be the largest refinery operated by the company. The refinery supplies petroleum products to the Ust-Luga terminal. Additional facilities, including Yaroslavnefteorgsintez, the Moscow Oil Refinery and the Ryazan Oil Refinery, were also affected by the disruption to export routes linked to the port.

Authorities reported further drone activity on March 29, confirming additional damage at Ust-Luga. Data from NASA’s FIRMS thermal anomaly monitoring system showed two probable fires on March 28 in areas corresponding to both terminals. Shipments from Ust-Luga have likely remained suspended since March 25.

At Primorsk, a fire that followed the March 23 strike was contained and extinguished on March 26. Another attack was reported on March 27. FIRMS data indicated that thermal anomalies at the port site persisted until March 29. Satellite imagery showed a fire at the tank farm of Transneft’s Primorsk Specialized Oil Port.

A further drone strike on the Ust-Luga port complex was reported overnight on March 31. Russian pro-war channels complain that the air defence remains completely inadequate.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said on March 30 that he is under pressure from his allies who are asking him not to exacerbate the energy crisis but halting Russian oil exports. He has ignored them.

Damaged but not destroyed

The ports have been damaged but not destroyed. Unlike Russia, Ukraine lacks the power ballistic missiles to actually destroy the facilities. Typically after a drone strike, refineries and ports are repaired and back online within a week.

Primorsk and Ust-Luga, Russia’s two largest oil ports on the Baltic Sea, handled approximately 1.7mn barrels per day before recent drone attacks, according to Bloomberg estimates. Of this total, around 1mn barrels per day passed through Primorsk and 0.7mn through Ust-Luga, representing nearly 45% of Russia’s seaborne crude exports.

Exports had risen sharply in recent weeks. In the period from March 15 to March 22, Russia shipped about 4mn barrels of crude oil per day by sea, the highest level since late 2025, while weekly revenues reached $2.46bn, the strongest since March 2022, Bloomberg reported on March 25.

Following the attacks, Reuters reported that up to 40% of Russia’s total oil export capacity, including both seaborne shipments and pipelines, had been disrupted. This equates to roughly 2mn barrels per day. The estimate includes earlier damage to the Sheskharis terminal in Novorossiysk caused by Ukrainian drones, the shutdown of sections of the Druzhba pipeline, and the detention of tankers linked to the so-called shadow fleet, The Bell reports.

However, the extent of lost capacity may be less critical than the severity of the damage and the time required for repairs. Shipments from Primorsk resumed on March 26, three days after the initial strikes, though it remained unclear when the port would return to full capacity. At Ust-Luga, exports had not resumed by the end of the week, with Reuters sources indicating that operations could remain suspended until mid-April.

No official damage assessments have been released, and affected companies have not issued detailed statements. Nikolai Tokarev, President of Transneft, which holds a 25% stake in Ust-Luga, acknowledged the disruption, stating: “This task is urgent given the situation.”

In response to the attacks, authorities reinstated a full ban on gasoline exports effective April 1.

Bloomberg, citing officials familiar with the matter, reported that shipments from Primorsk could recover relatively quickly, based on previous incidents. Domestic analysts cited by Forbes estimated a recovery period of five to seven days.

The strikes could reduce Russia’s additional revenues from oil prices exceeding $100 per barrel, gains linked to market conditions following the war in Iran, Bloomberg reported.