Washington’s military operation in Venezuela has reverberated far beyond Latin America, unsettling assumptions about restraint, sovereignty and the limits of international law around the world. By prioritising access to Venezuelan energy and signalling a readiness to use force against a much weaker state, the Trump administration has reinforced concerns that US foreign policy has tilted away from a rules-based order towards unapologetic power politics.

Talk of territorial ambition elsewhere has only amplified that impression – especially in and around the Sinosphere.

According to a recent piece in Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, some analysts argue that such behaviour has little bearing on states such as China, which are already seen as indifferent to international law. That view is naive, and underestimates just how seriously Beijing takes norms when they serve as a solid reference point for legitimacy. It also ignores just how closely Beijing studies US behaviour.

The move against Venezuela almost a week ago has thus sent Chinese strategists back to the drawing board to not only reassess US military capabilities as deployed in Venezuela, but also the American president’s willingness to deploy them. The conclusion emerging in Beijing is not that the US is reckless, but that it is prepared to act decisively when the balance of power is overwhelmingly in its favour – with little regard given to subsequent international condemnation.

The lesson China is drawing from the removal of President Maduro from power is thus particularly uncomfortable for its neighbours: Beijing now believes it must - and can - double down on regional territorial claims even if it is an instinct likely to intensify competition with Washington rather than stabilise it.

The erosion of ‘international norms’ such as respecting sovereignty by Washington matters precisely because authoritarian systems rely heavily on a belief in their own righteousness. Through controlled media and insulated debate, policymakers and populations alike are encouraged to see their actions as morally justified, if not superior to those of liberal democracies.

When the US appears to abandon the standards it once promoted - and faces limited international pushback of note - it lowers the perceived threshold of acceptable behaviour for others. The benchmark becomes comparative rather than absolute.

In China, this dynamic is narrowing internal debate. Liberal-minded voices who once argued that norms constrained power are being increasingly marginalised.

Taiwan

Nowhere is this more consequential in Asia than in Taiwan. Beijing has grown increasingly explicit that it no longer views the status-quo as acceptable, and is now openly and actively pursuing what it calls ‘re’unification.

While China already frames Taiwan as an internal matter, international reaction still weighs heavily in its calculations. The muted global response to US actions in Venezuela is thus likely to reinforce the belief that decisive moves against Taiwan, possibly dressed as domestic law enforcement rather than outright war, could now be tolerated by the West, or at least endured.

Any Chinese operation would still hinge on the international response of course. The potential of hard-hitting sanctions and diplomatic isolation could still constrain Beijing’s ability to sustain a conflict and govern afterwards.

Washington’s own framing of the Venezuela operation as law enforcement closely mirrors China’s evolving language around Taiwan. While this may not accelerate Beijing’s timetable per se, it does strengthen expectations that global resistance would be fragmented, and in the case of Europe, may be little more than a whimper as has been seen in response to the political decapitation of a nation much closer to home both geographically and culturally.

That assumption becomes more tempting if the US appears overstretched with its push for dominance in the western hemisphere and continued examples of transactional bargaining. Beijing is now likely weighing whether to temper its reaction to events in Latin America in exchange for concessions elsewhere – read: Taiwan. Its restrained official response so far suggests it is keeping those options open.