From steel mills in Romania to logistics hubs in Poland and construction materials factories in Moldova, some companies across Ukraine’s western neighbourhood are positioning themselves for what is expected to be the largest reconstruction effort in Europe since the Second World War. 

Yet despite the scale of the opportunity, the anticipated wave of new investment in Ukraine's neighbours has not yet arrived on a large scale, held back by uncertainty over when – and how – the war will end.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said earlier in February that the US has given Kyiv and Moscow another deadline to reach a peace settlement, now proposing that the war should end by June, after two days of US-led talks in Abu Dhabi failed to deliver a breakthrough. 

For companies in Central and Eastern Europe (CEE), the talks are being followed closely. In February 2025, the World Bank, together with the Ukrainian government, the European Commission and the United Nations, estimated Ukraine’s reconstruction and recovery needs at $524bn over the next decade, almost three times its 2024 GDP. That figure will since have been pushed up by the Russian bombardment of Ukraine’s energy infrastructure and other targets. 

Despite the scale of the expected reconstruction, the political and security risks remain daunting. “This is not moving nearly as fast as it could have,” said Richard Gieveson, chief economist for emerging Europe at the Vienna Institute for International Economic Studies (wiiw), during a webinar organised by wiiw on February 10. “The post-war future is so uncertain, and the security guarantees are not guaranteed at the moment.”

Investment still cautious

More broadly, according to Gieveson, foreign direct investment (FDI) inflows into the Central and Eastern Europe region have fallen sharply since the start of the war.

“What we see in terms of investment in the region in general is a very sharp decline in FDI,” he said. “There is still FDI going into some markets, but the message from the data is that companies already there are staying and reinvesting earnings, while there are very few big new investments.”

While FDI has declined globally amid geopolitical tensions, the fall has been steeper in Ukraine’s neighbourhood, he said, driven by political risk as well as labour cost shocks that have eroded the region’s traditional cost advantages.

“There is a lot of hope for a big wave of new investment linked to Ukraine’s defence sector and a positive post-war future,” Gieveson added. “But that will only happen if the war ends in a way that gives investors confidence that Russia will not be able to start again in a couple of years.”

Bet on steel in Romania 

Decimated by the EU’s Green Deal, Romania’s steel industry is now relying on investment projects driven by large local infrastructure works and on the prospect of further expansion once the war in Ukraine ends.

Local construction entrepreneur Dorinel Umbrarescu took over ArcelorMittal Hunedoara, in western Romania, last December, while his family has been working to restore the historic Otelu Rosu steelworks, not far from Hunedoara, acquired one year earlier.

Separately, Ukrainian billionaire Rinat Akhmetov acquired the other asset sold by ArcelorMittal, the pipemaker Tubular Products Iasi, in north-eastern Romania, also in 2025.

Both Umbrarescu and Akhmetov, among others, are expected to place bids for Liberty Galati — Romania’s flagship steel mill — which is currently under pre-insolvency procedures and is due to be auctioned later this year.

While local infrastructure projects are broadly expected to keep domestic demand at a high level — with Umbrarescu particularly well positioned to capitalise on this given the major motorway projects he is undertaking — the end of the war in Ukraine, followed by large-scale reconstruction investments, is part of the upgraded outlook for Romania’s steel industry. The government has confirmed plans to speed up the sale of Liberty Galati later this year and has also extended financial support for the workforce during the transition period.

Growing role for Moldova

While foreign investors are generally cautious about entering Moldova — a country that is not yet a member of Nato and where Russian troops are still stationed in the separatist Transnistria region — some factories are nevertheless being developed, with potential expansion targeting the Ukrainian market. More are likely to follow as the country advances in EU membership negotiations, but also depending on developments in neighbouring Ukraine.

BauTex Composites, a subsidiary of the German industrial group BauTex-Stoffe, plans to expand its production capacity in Moldova, create around 300 new jobs and has reached €50mn in revenues. Total investments by the company in Moldova have exceeded €20mn.

ROCA Industry, an industrial holding company listed on the main market of the Bucharest Stock Exchange, has invested more than €6.5mn in its operations in Moldova. In 2022, BICO Industries, a subsidiary of ROCA Industry, entered the Moldovan market through the acquisition of Europlas and Terra, two manufacturers of fibreglass mesh.

In an interview with bne IntelliNews in 2024, Moldova’s then economy minister Dumitru Alaiba said the country had already seen an upturn in interest from investors in sectors such as construction materials looking at the Ukraine reconstruction. 

“Once this war is over we will of course play a role in terms of supporting Ukraine with necessary goods and products. We see already increased interest from investors looking at opportunities for Ukraine,” Alaiba told bne IntelliNews. 

Natalia Bejan, director of the Invest Moldova agency, told bne IntelliNews in 2025 that companies are eyeing Moldova as a potential base to supply the reconstruction. 

"There are investors who … maybe never thought of Moldova, but now are thinking about it in the context of rebuilding Ukraine. We have investments happening in Moldova, especially in construction materials that have become possible because of this circumstance,” she said. 

“First of all this horrible war has to stop [then] Moldova has the chance to play a role and we have to be prepared.” 

Poland's logistics role

Poland is already playing a central role in limited wartime rebuilding, and has become the main logistics and transit centre for Ukraine’s exports and imports. As detailed by the Warsaw-based Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW), the years after Russia’s invasion have seen a “surge in Polish-Ukrainian trade”, much of it war-related goods. 

2025 saw the launch of Team Poland for Ukraine, a programme for Polish companies that want to get involved in the economic reconstruction of Ukraine.

Poland is also central to the reshaping of infrastructure in the region for Ukraine’s future needs. Poland is expanding the Sławków Euroterminal, where European and Ukrainian rail gauges meet, nearly doubling capacity and aiming to turn it into Europe’s largest dry port. The multi-phase project is expected to cost more than €1bn.

Poland will use the development of the Sławków logistics hub to benefit from Ukraine’s post-war reconstruction, Prime Minister Donald Tusk said in May 2025. “It’s not wrong to say we want to earn big money for Poland on the reconstruction of Ukraine. We want to help, but we also want to benefit, and that’s what this special hub is for,” he added. 

Euroterminal Sławków is a major logistics hub located in southern Poland at the intersection of broad-gauge railway lines used in Ukraine and standard-gauge lines common in the EU.

Romania, meanwhile, is positioning the Black Sea port of Constanța as a key gateway, while private multimodal terminals are expanding in western Ukraine. Anticipation of an end to the war has also focussed attention on logistics in eastern Slovakia. 

“Eastern Slovakia is becoming a natural gateway for the reconstruction of Ukraine – a combination of new automotive infrastructure, energy capacities, and a unique connection via the broad-gauge railway from Ukraine creates unparalleled potential in the region,” said Michal Cerulík, director and head of the industrial & logistics sector at CBRE Slovakia, in an interview with The Slovak Spectator