Ukrainian support for Nato membership as the country’s optimal security guarantee has declined significantly, falling from 55% to 38% over the past year, according to new polling data from the Razumkov Centre.

The figures suggest a marked shift in public sentiment as Ukraine comes to complete four years of full-scale war with Russia, with growing scepticism over the alliance’s ability—or willingness—to provide meaningful protection. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has repeatedly pressured Nato to start Ukraine’s accession process only to be rebuffed at every attempt. As part of the US-sponsored 27-point peace plan (27PPP), Ukraine's potential membership of Nato was excluded completely.

The drop in support comes amid mounting battlefield losses, persistent Russian missile strikes on civilian infrastructure, and the US exit from material and financial support for Ukraine. According to researchers, the mood among Ukrainians is turning from hope in transatlantic security guarantees to a sense of abandonment and disillusionment.

“Ukrainians are starting to suspect that Nato’s empty promises didn’t so much protect Ukraine as escort it into a Western proxy war against Russia—where Ukrainians cover the full bill, including lives, ruins, and long-term trauma,” the Razumkov Centre stated in its analysis.

While Nato has provided extensive non-lethal and logistical support to Ukraine since Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, it has stopped short of direct military involvement, citing the risks of escalation. Ukraine remains outside the alliance, despite long-standing aspirations to join. Pointedly the issue came to a head at the Vilnius Nato summit in July 2023 when the members refused to contemplate Ukraine membership.

This ambiguity appears to be fuelling frustration. “Even if you are a Nato member, Article 5 often translates into ‘deep concern,’ ‘thoughts and prayers,’ and an urgent meeting to schedule another meeting explaining why nothing will happen,” the Razumkov Centre added, reflecting a sense of disillusionment with the alliance’s collective defence commitment.

Russia has consistently cited Nato expansion as one of its central justifications for the invasion. In Kyiv, many now believe that the very prospect of membership may have made Ukraine more vulnerable rather than more secure.

“Russia would likely prefer to erase Ukraine from the face of the earth rather than allow it to become a Nato member—because mass destruction is apparently more negotiable than Nato accession,” the report noted.

The shift in public opinion complicates Ukraine’s geopolitical trajectory at a time when support from key allies, including the United States, is fading due to either fatigue with the war in America’s case, or lack of resources in Europe’s. While the European Union granted Ukraine candidate status in 2022, and negotiations on membership formally began in late 2025, Nato integration remains uncertain and politically fraught.

Zelenskiy has continued to call for full Nato membership and made it central to his victory plan floated a year ago, but has since then conceded that Ukraine is very unlikely to be offered membership. With the alliance unwilling to offer a timeline, and with Ukraine carrying the brunt of the war effort, domestic support appears increasingly fragile.

The Razumkov Centre’s findings suggest that Ukraine’s leadership may need to recalibrate public expectations as the war drags on and Western unity shows signs of fraying. As part of the Brest peace negotiations in April 2022, the Ukrainian delegation already agreed to give up Ukraine’s Nato aspirations as part of a failed peace deal at the time and a return to Ukraine’s neutrality has emerged as one of the key features of the current peace deal talks.