Ukrainian farmers could lose up to $5bn in export revenues as soaring fertiliser prices threaten crop yields and the country’s agricultural output, reported Ukraine Business News.

Rising costs for mineral fertilisers are already disrupting the sowing campaign, with analysts cautioning that insufficient application during the winter planting season could reduce the expected harvest by more than 20%. Such a decline would translate into losses of between $4bn and $5bn in foreign currency earnings, a significant blow to one of Ukraine’s key economic sectors.

On the domestic market, prices for key inputs such as ammonium nitrate and urea have climbed to around UAH40,000 ($1,000) per tonne, driven by a combination of global price pressures and local factors including high logistics costs and customs duties.

Farmers, facing tightening margins, are being forced to cut back on fertiliser use, a move that is expected to directly affect crop yields. The situation is compounded by rising seed costs and uncertainty over future prices for grain and oilseeds, further squeezing profitability.

Agriculture remains a cornerstone of Ukraine’s export economy, and reduced output could have wider implications for trade balances and rural incomes.

Experts say mitigating the impact will require coordinated measures, including improving supply chain logistics, boosting domestic fertiliser production and revising customs policies to ease cost pressures on producers.