The graceless removal of Nicolás Maduro from Venezuela has left not a power vacuum but a precarious triumvirate of rival cabals whose competing interests threaten to shatter the already brittle foundations of Chavismo, the anti-imperialist movement forged by former president Hugo Chavez. Where once four centres of power balanced uneasily in Caracas, now only three remain – each with distinct loyalties, capabilities and vulnerabilities that will determine whether the oil-rich country edges toward a genuine democratic transition or descends into factional conflict.

The configuration that governed Venezuela until January 3 comprised President Maduro himself alongside his wife Cilia Flores, Defence Minister Vladimir Padrino López, Interior Minister Diosdado Cabello, and the sibling duo of Delcy and Jorge Rodríguez. With Maduro now in a New York detention facility awaiting trial on narco-terrorism charges, that equilibrium has collapsed, leaving Delcy Rodríguez, sworn in as acting president by Venezuela's Supreme Court, juggling the demands of two powerful hard-line factions whilst attempting to build a bridge with Washington.

The Trump administration's stunning decision to empower Rodríguez rather than opposition leader María Corina Machado represents a calculated bet on continuity over democratic legitimacy. Machado, who won international recognition including the 2025 Nobel Peace Prize for her courageous opposition movement, has been effectively sidelined despite her coalition's victory in the widely disputed 2024 elections. Trump's abrupt dismissal of her as lacking the necessary "respect" and domestic support makes clear that Washington has prioritised immediate control over Venezuela's vast oil reserves and regional stability above democratic principles.

"The power structure in Venezuela changed on January 3, 2026," Venezuelan analyst Gustavo Azócar wrote on X. "Before that date, power was divided into four main poles. As of January 4, the power structure was reduced to three poles."

Delcy Rodríguez: the pragmatist under pressure

Rodríguez, 56, embodies what some analysts characterise as the technocratic face of Chavismo: less ideologically rigid than her counterparts, more attuned to economic realities, and demonstrably capable of engaging Venezuela's business elite despite two decades defending authoritarian governance. Her management of Venezuela's petroleum portfolio since August 2024, combined with her role stabilising an economy ravaged by hyperinflation, earned grudging respect even from critics who note her complicity in human rights abuses and democratic backsliding.

The daughter of Marxist guerrilla Jorge Antonio Rodríguez, who died in custody in 1976 under interrogation by security forces aligned with Venezuela's then pro-American government, she once described joining Chavismo as "personal revenge" for her father's death. Yet her European education, expertise in labour law, and cultivation of relationships with foreign investors betray a capacity for pragmatism that sets her apart from more dogmatic regime figures.

Her formal assumption of the presidency on January 5, administered by her brother Jorge Rodríguez in his capacity as National Assembly speaker, provided a veneer of constitutional legitimacy to an arrangement that analysts believe masks a tacit understanding with Washington. Standing before lawmakers with her right hand raised, she declared: "I come with sorrow for the suffering inflicted upon the Venezuelan people following an illegitimate military aggression against our homeland."

But the choreographed display of outrage appeared calibrated to placate domestic Chavista constituencies whilst preserving space for the cooperation Trump has publicly said she offered. Her remarkable shift from the defiant denunciation of American intervention on January 3 to a conciliatory statement 24 hours later seeking “respectful relations” with the United States best exemplifies the tightrope she must now walk.

Trump's suggestion that Rodríguez had spoken cordially with Secretary of State Marco Rubio and expressed willingness to cooperate, claims she publicly contradicted hours later whilst demanding Maduro's release, has further fuelled speculation about secret understandings. According to NYT reports citing sources familiar with transition discussions, intermediaries persuaded the Trump administration that Rodríguez would be best placed to protect future American energy investments in Venezuela, making her an acceptable interim solution.

"I've been watching her career for a long time, so I have some sense of who she is and what she's about," a senior US official told The New York Times. "I'm not claiming that she's the permanent solution to the country's problems, but she's certainly someone we think we can work at a much more professional level than we were able to do with him."

Dominican analyst Félix Portes argued that Rodríguez's appointment follows historical patterns where external powers prioritise stability over immediate democratic transitions. "The powers do not place the most beloved leader first, but the one who reduces immediate risk," Portes wrote on X, drawing parallels to Joaquín Balaguer's role in the Dominican Republic following Rafael Trujillo's assassination in 1961. "The popular leader represents rupture; the continuist represents containment."

Yet Rodríguez's position remains precarious. Her brother Jorge, who heads Venezuela's National Assembly and occupies third place in the constitutional succession, reportedly orchestrated the arrangement with Washington that saw Maduro removed whilst preserving the siblings' grip on formal power structures. But their capacity to deliver on any understanding with Trump depends on maintaining control over security forces commanded by hard-line figures who may view them with suspicion or contempt.

The Supreme Court's decision to classify Maduro's detention as a "temporary" absence rather than permanent unavailability technically permits Rodríguez to serve for up to 90 days – a period extendable to six months with legislative approval – without triggering constitutional requirements for elections within 30 days. The court's failure to specify any time limit has prompted speculation that she could attempt to extend her tenure indefinitely, though such manoeuvres would test the tolerance of both hard-line Chavista factions and Washington.

Vladimir Padrino López: the military kingmaker

Defence Minister Padrino López, 63, represents perhaps the most consequential variable in Venezuela's evolving power dynamic. A career army officer who demonstrated loyalty to Hugo Chávez during the failed 2002 coup attempt, he has served as defence minister since 2014 – longer than any predecessor – cementing his position as the military's public face and its connection to civilian governance.

His authority extends beyond traditional military command. Since 2016, Padrino López has overseen food and medicine distribution across Venezuela, giving him control over survival necessities in a country wracked by shortages caused by sanctions and widespread corruption. The armed forces under his direction have expanded into civilian sectors including ports, mining operations and key state industries, transforming the military into a de facto autonomous economic power centre whose interests may not align with either US objectives or the Rodríguez siblings' ambitions.

Padrino López's recognition of Delcy Rodríguez as acting president on January 4, appearing on television to endorse the Supreme Court ruling whilst calling on Venezuelans to resume normal activities, may indicate some kind of initial acquiescence to the post-Maduro arrangement. But his denunciation of the US operation as a "cowardly kidnapping" and claims that Maduro's Cuban bodyguards, military personnel and civilians were killed "in cold blood" pointed to continued resistance to the American intervention.

According to Azócar's analysis, the first Trump administration had attempted to arrange Venezuela's transition through Padrino López, offering him agreements similar to arrangements made with General Augusto Pinochet in Chile. "But Padrino López never honoured it," Azócar said. "On the contrary, he clung to power and betrayed the agreements he had signed."

That history of unreliability reportedly led Trump, now determined to sort out unfinished business in Venezuela during his second term, to reject Padrino López as a transition partner despite his strong grip over Venezuela's armed forces. Yet his capacity to destabilise any arrangement between Washington and the Rodríguez faction remains substantial. Military commanders loyal to Padrino López could choose to reject cooperation with the United States, creating conditions for civil conflict or fragmenting territorial control.

On top of that, the defence minister still faces US federal charges filed in March 2020 accusing him of facilitating drug trafficking by allowing commercial flights carrying illegal narcotics to transit Venezuelan airspace whilst collecting protection fees. Washington has offered rewards up to $15mn for information leading to his arrest, a standing threat that may influence his calculations about accommodation versus resistance.

Diosdado Cabello: the brutal enforcer

If Padrino López controls the military, Diosdado Cabello commands the instruments of internal repression. Venezuela's Interior Minister and longtime United Socialist Party leader, the 62-year-old former military officer wields power through ironclad loyalty networks spanning intelligence services, security forces and party structures built during two decades at the regime's core.

Cabello's reputation as an enforcer stems partly from his weekly television programme Con el Mazo Dando (Striking with the Club) on state TV, where he has publicly lashed out at opponents, journalists and dissidents. His control over domestic intelligence apparatus gives him visibility into potential challenges to regime continuity, whilst his unwavering ideological commitment to Chavismo makes him perhaps the least likely of the three power centres to bow to Washington’s demands.

"Diosdado Cabello is the most ideological, violent and unpredictable element of the regime," Venezuelan military strategist José García told Reuters.

Like Padrino López, Cabello faces US federal charges, indicted in 2020 as a senior figure in the alleged Cartel de los Soles organisation alongside Maduro. Washington accuses him of facilitating drug trafficking whilst collecting protection money, allegations Cabello denies but which keep him under international sanctions and at risk of arrest should he leave Venezuela.

Cabello's hastily arranged broadcast on state television in the hours after Maduro's capture, wearing combat gear and flanked by intelligence service members, conveyed both defiance and an attempt to project control during crisis. His appeal for supporters not to create "situations that favour the invading enemy" invoked the security forces' loyalist mantras whilst seeking to maintain cohesion amongst elements most resistant to American pressure.

However, his position relative to the Rodríguez siblings remains ambiguous. Azócar's analysis suggested both Cabello and Padrino López "look at her askance, with contempt and distrust, because they know that just as she and her brother handed Maduro over (because they were the ones who handed him over), tomorrow they could also hand over either of them to stay in power."

The theatre of defiance

The National Assembly's opening session on January 5 exemplified the careful performance Rodríguez must sustain to maintain support amongst Chavista loyalists whilst privately accommodating American demands. Lawmakers delivered impassioned speeches slamming Maduro's capture as an assault on Venezuelan sovereignty, with Nicolas Maduro Guerra, the deposed leader's son and assembly deputy president, warning that normalising "the kidnapping of a head of state" meant "no country is safe."

"Today, it's Venezuela. Tomorrow, it could be any nation that refuses to submit," Maduro Guerra declared in his first public appearance since January 3. "This is not a regional problem. It is a direct threat to global political stability."

Another lawmaker, Grecia Colmenares, vowed to "take every giant step to bring back (to Venezuela) the bravest of the brave, Nicolás Maduro Moreno, and our first lady, Cilia Flores," swearing "by the shared destiny we deserve."

Such displays serve multiple purposes for Rodríguez. They provide cover for cooperation with Washington by demonstrating continued loyalty to Chavista principles, reassure military and intelligence apparatus figures who might question her commitment, and create plausible deniability should arrangements with Trump collapse. Yet the theatricality also lays bare her vulnerability: she must simultaneously appear defiant enough to retain domestic legitimacy whilst compliant enough to meet American demands.

Trump's warning that Rodríguez could "pay a very big price, probably bigger than Maduro" if she fails to cooperate suggests Washington understands this balancing act but expects concrete results. Secretary of State Rubio's statement that the administration would not govern Venezuela "day-to-day other than enforcing an existing oil quarantine" whilst expecting "changes, not just in the way the oil industry is run for the benefit of the people, but also so that they stop the drug trafficking" set the clear boundaries within which Rodríguez must operate.

The State Department's announcement on January 5 of preliminary planning to reopen the American embassy in Caracas, closed since 2019, makes crystal clear Washington's expectation that Rodríguez will deliver on whatever understandings facilitated Maduro's ouster. Still, whether she can satisfy US diktats for oil sector access and counter-narcotics cooperation whilst managing hard-line factions who view such accommodation as betrayal remains deeply uncertain.

The fractured opposition

Machado's exclusion from transition arrangements represents perhaps the starkest demonstration of Trump's material priorities. Despite her Nobel Prize, widespread international recognition of her movement's electoral victory, and clear democratic legitimacy, the firebrand opposition leader remains in exile whilst Washington empowers figures who spent decades undermining Venezuelan democracy.

"María Corina Machado is the undisputed leader of the democratic—and democratically elected—opposition in Venezuela," wrote Kevin Casas-Zamora, secretary general at International IDEA. "That a foreign power should decide who will or will not play a role in the political events to come in Venezuela is as surprising as it is indefensible."

Her categorical refusal to negotiate with Maduro's government, whilst morally principled, reportedly crippled her ability to build broader coalitions necessary for power transition. Trump administration officials grew frustrated with what they perceived as inadequate planning for governance transition and inaccurate assessments of Maduro's strength, according to sources cited by the NYT. The White House was reportedly anxious to avoid repeating the debacle of Juan Guaidó, whom Washington recognised as Venezuela's legitimate president in 2019 only to watch him fail to translate international backing into domestic leverage, ultimately ending his political career in exile.

“For Trump, democracy is not a concern — it is about money, power, and protecting the homeland from drugs and criminals,” said Michael Shifter, a senior fellow at the Inter-American Dialogue, as quoted by the NYT.

Machado's repeated calls for comprehensive sanctions alienated Venezuela's business elite, which had established working arrangements with the regime, whilst her support for Israel’s questionable conduct in Gaza and her allies' aggressive social media campaigns against other opposition voices cost her backing even among some US Democrats and business figures with Venezuelan interests.

What comes next

Venezuela now lingers in a precarious state of suspended animation. Delcy Rodríguez occupies the presidential palace with constitutional authority but uncertain legitimacy, dependent on military and intelligence structures controlled by figures who likely view her as a traitor for allegedly facilitating Maduro's removal. Trump has declared the United States will "run" Venezuela temporarily whilst overseeing some unspecified form of transition, yet provided no timeline or clarity about what that entails beyond oil sector control and counter-narcotics objectives.

Brazil has recognised Rodríguez as Venezuela's leader in Maduro's absence, though many other governments have yet to clarify their positions. Meanwhile, Maduro – who pleaded not guilty at the January 5 arraignment in Manhattan federal court, declaring himself "innocent" and "a decent man" – continues claiming he remains Venezuela's sole legitimate president even whilst locked up in a New York prison.

The Rodríguez siblings' capacity to navigate between Washington's demands for oil sector access and domestic pressure from hard-line Chavistas will reveal whether this arrangement represents a real pivot toward democracy or merely prolongs authoritarian governance under the guise of US-compliant management. Jorge Rodríguez's role orchestrating the 2023–2024 negotiations with the Biden administration, which offered sanctions relief in exchange for electoral commitments that Caracas subsequently violated, does not inspire confidence in the durability of any understanding with Trump.

"This movie isn't over," Azócar said. "What we saw on January 3 was just the trailers. The real movie is about to begin."

Whether the storyline concludes with Venezuela's democratic transition, internal strife amongst the three remaining power centres potentially leading to civil war, or some half-hearted arrangement that satisfies neither the Venezuelan opposition nor American strategic objectives remains the key question for the coming months. What appears certain is that Venezuela's future will be determined less by popular will than by calculations concocted in Trump’s White House, Caracas military barracks and the offices where Interior Minister Cabello oversees his machinery of repression. A sobering reality for the nearly 8mn Venezuelan exiles scattered across the world who hoped Maduro's removal might herald genuine democratic change.