European leaders called for de-escalation of the growing conflict in the Middle East and scrambled to assess security risks on March 1 after US and Israeli strikes killed Iran’s Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.

Israel on March 1 urged European governments to join what it describes as a coalition against Tehran, but European capitals have so far not shown any indication they will enter the conflict. No EU or Nato government immediately endorsed the US-Israeli operation, which sparked retaliation from Iran targeting US-linked sites in several Middle Eastern countries. 

The European ‘Troika’ comprising France Germany and the UK issued a joint statement urging Iran to "refrain from indiscriminate military strikes”, but added a call for “the resumption of negotiations”. 

French President Emmanuel Macron said Paris was “neither informed nor involved” in the strikes and stressed the need to resolve the issue through diplomatic channels. 

Cyprus question 

There was speculation on March 1 that Iran had aimed missiles at a UK base in Cyprus. However, Cypriot President Nikos Christodoulides later said in an X post that UK Prime Minister had “confirmed clearly and unequivocally that Cyprus was not a target”. 

Defence Secretary John Healey said British forces had not had any part in the strikes on Iran and were concentrating on defensive actions. He declined to speculate on whether the UK could directly attack Iran. 

According to the Arms Control Association, Iran possesses medium-range ballistic missiles with ranges of up to roughly 2,000km, potentially placing parts of southeastern Europe within reach, including EU and Nato members Bulgaria, Cyprus, Greece and Romania. 

Terror attacks are another potential concern. Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orbán raised the country’s terror threat level, warning of a heightened risk of attacks across Europe. Other governments said they were reviewing protective measures for diplomatic missions and critical infrastructure.

Strategic crossroads

EU foreign policy chief Kaja Kallas described the killing of Khamenei as a watershed moment.

“The death of Ali Khamenei is a defining moment in Iran’s history,” Kallas said in an X post on March 1. “What comes next is uncertain. But there is now an open path to a different Iran, one that its people may have greater freedom to shape.

“I’m in contact with partners, including those in the region that bear the brunt of Iran’s military actions, to find practical steps for de-escalation,” she added.

For Europe, there are significant strategic implications. Iran has supplied Russia with military equipment during the war in Ukraine, advanced its nuclear programme and supported armed proxies across the region.

A more moderate government in Tehran could reduce missile and nuclear risks and ease tensions affecting maritime trade routes critical to European economies.

However, there are also concerns that regime collapse in a country of more than 90mn people could trigger factional struggles, economic breakdown and refugee flows toward Turkey and onward to Europe.

New international order 

In Strasbourg, the secretary general of the Council of Europe, Alain Berset, issued a strongly worded statement critical of both sides. 

“The Middle East is sliding into full-scale conflict at the immediate eastern borders of the Council of Europe. As missiles strike, international law is weaponised. Civilians in Iran and across the region bear the brunt of force,” the secretary general said in a statement.

“As we have seen with the crisis in Venezuela, this situation cannot be reduced to a binary choice between condemnation and support, regardless of the leadership and nature of the regime in Tehran,” the statement added.

“We are in a deconstruction phase of the international legal order where impulses and the power of the strongest are seeking to govern relations between states. This world has no legal order, only force and double standards. I echo calls for an immediate cessation of hostilities by all parties.”

Pressure to avoid alignment

The London-based European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR) urged European governments to distance themselves clearly from Washington’s military action.

In a commentary, Ellie Geranmayeh, deputy director of the think-tank’s Middle East and North Africa programme, wrote: “As things stand, however, a quick end to the war looks unlikely. This could be the beginning of a new long conflict for the US in the Middle East, one that could itself prompt a deep and painful civil war within Iran.”

She added: “It is urgent that Europeans and their international partners mobilise in reducing the damage from this fast-spreading war and in halting the fighting as soon as possible.”

Geranmayeh argued that Europeans should “communicate clearly that this is a war of choice by America, in contravention of the same UN charter the Europeans have themselves invoked to condemn Russia’s illegal invasion of Ukraine.”

She also warned that staying silent “would only signal weakness to the US, Russia and China and encourage further such behaviour”.