Russian banks carry RUB11.5 trillion ($136bn) of problem corporate debt, more than three times the officially overdue sum, Izvestia reported on September 18, citing central bank data.

Risky restructurings - loans rewritten on easier terms for borrowers already missing payments or close to it - reached RUB4.8 trillion ($56.8bn) at end-June, up from RUB3 trillion ($35.5bn) a year earlier, a rise of 60%. Officially overdue corporate loans stood at RUB3.5 trillion ($41.4bn). The three measures overlap and cannot be added together.

Set against a corporate loan portfolio of RUB100.2 trillion ($1.19 trillion) at end-June, on the Central Bank of Russia's (CBR) own banking sector review, the reported broad measure is equivalent to 11.5% of the loan book. This is an indicative comparison: the measures may differ in timing and coverage, and overdue debt is narrower than problem debt.

Restructuring can postpone repayments and, in some cases, delay recognition of deteriorating credit quality. The Centre for Macroeconomic Analysis and Short-Term Forecasting, a Moscow research body, has warned that this can keep part of the deterioration in asset quality off the books. Banks have also been swapping problem debt for equity stakes and non-core assets.

The CBR does not dispute that corporate credit quality has weakened. It says about half the problem debt is covered by reserves and good collateral and that the residual risk is moderate. Its own figures put the corporate cost of risk at 1.3% in 2Q26, up 0.7 percentage points q/q after banks recognised heavier losses on lending to industrial companies, and the regulator expects provisioning to rise again in 2H26.

Mikhail Bryukhanov, board chairman of Pervouralskbank, told the paper the true share of problem assets could be 14-16% of the portfolio, against an official reading of 11.8% cited in the report. Tatiana Belyanchikova of the Plekhanov Russian University of Economics said restructurings had become the main indicator of hidden stress, because deferrals granted across many banks at once turn individual credit problems into a macroeconomic one.

The CBR lifted its 2026 net profit forecast for Russian banks to RUB3.9 trillion-RUB4.4 trillion ($46.1bn-$52.1bn) in September, and banks earned RUB2.8 trillion ($33.1bn) in the first seven months of 2026, up 32% y/y. The projected annual profit is equivalent to 34%-38% of the reported problem-debt stock, although problem debt does not represent a forecast loss.

Much Russian corporate lending carries floating rates pegged to the key rate, which the CBR held at 14% on September 11, pausing its easing cycle. The outlook for subsequent cuts remains uncertain: the linked report discusses a possible pause but also says most economists surveyed by RBC expected easing to resume before the end of the year.

Consultancy Kept estimated in February that about 15% of banks' corporate loan portfolios, some RUB13 trillion ($154bn), needed complex restructuring, and that up to RUB3 trillion of bad corporate debt a year could begin changing hands as a distressed-asset market takes shape. The favoured tool last year was pushing maturities out by one to three years with a grace period of 12 to 24 months, during which borrowers paid two-thirds of the interest or less.

Economist Andrey Barkhota told the paper the cycle of credit-quality deterioration has further to run and is unlikely to stabilise before mid-2027.