Russia has intensified covert efforts to undermine Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan ahead of the June general election, according to Western intelligence and government officials quoted by Reuters, amid growing concern in Moscow that his re-election could cement the South Caucasus state’s shift toward the West.

The efforts have included disinformation campaigns backing pro-Russian opposition forces and discussions about transporting large numbers of Russian-Armenians to Armenia to influence the June 7 vote, according to interviews with five Western intelligence officials and documents reviewed by Reuters.

The revelations reflect the geopolitical stakes surrounding as one of Armenia’s most consequential elections since independence in 1991, as the former Soviet republic weighs closer integration with Western partners against decades of political, economic and security dependence on Russia.

A landlocked country of around 3mn people, Armenia has long remained within Moscow’s orbit. But relations between the two allies have deteriorated sharply under Pashinyan, who came to power in 2018. Tensions deepened over Armenia’s accusations that the Kremlin-led Collective Security Treaty Organisation (CSTO) failed to support Yerevan during clashes with Azerbaijan over Nagorno-Karabakh.

The relationship deteriorated further after Azerbaijan recaptured Nagorno-Karabakh in a 2023 military offensive despite the presence of Russian peacekeepers, prompting more than 100,000 ethnic Armenians to flee the enclave. Armenia froze its participation in the CSTO in 2024.

Western officials say Moscow now fears that another victory for Pashinyan could accelerate Armenia’s political and economic pivot toward Europe and the United States.

According to Reuters, the Kremlin established a department known as the Directorate for Strategic Cooperation and Partnership in October, which four of the sources said is overseeing influence operations in Armenia.

Russian officials have also discussed sending Russia-based Armenians to vote for Pashinyan’s opponents, five of the sources said. Armenians are not permitted to vote from abroad, but officials said Moscow had examined ways to physically transport voters to Armenia ahead of the election. One senior US official told the newswire intelligence agencies were taking the possibility seriously given the volume of regular travel between the two countries.

“Russian authorities calculated a cost of about $50mn to transport 100,000 voters,” three of the sources said. By mid-May, the Kremlin had reportedly issued quotas for how many Armenians each Russian region should send and asked local administrators to report back on preparations.

Reuters could not establish whether such a plan was actively underway or whether it would be sufficient to alter the outcome of the election.

Russia’s foreign ministry rejected the reporting, saying Reuters had published false statements and promoted “anti-Russian rhetoric”. 

Western officials also said Russian actors had intensified online disinformation campaigns targeting the Armenian government.

One alleged campaign falsely accused Pashinyan of involvement in a corrupt land deal linked to US senators Jeanne Shaheen and Thom Tillis, according to a senior US official. The senators had previously warned publicly about Russian disinformation efforts in Armenia.

The escalating tensions come as Washington dramatically increases its engagement in the South Caucasus.

US President Donald Trump on May 27 publicly endorsed Pashinyan ahead of the election, calling him “a great friend and leader”.

In a post on Truth Social, Trump said Pashinyan “completely shares my vision of PEACE and PROSPERITY for Armenia and the entire South Caucasus region” and added that the Armenian leader had his “COMPLETE and TOTAL Endorsement for Re-Election on June 7, 2026.”

The endorsement was an unusually direct intervention by a US president in Armenian domestic politics and highlighted Washington’s growing strategic interest in the region.

US Secretary of State Marco Rubio travelled to Yerevan this week, signing a minerals agreement and backing plans for the Trump Route for International Peace and Prosperity (TRIPP), a proposed transport corridor through Armenia linking Azerbaijan to its exclave of Nakhchivan.

The project emerged from a broader US-brokered peace agreement reached between Armenia and Azerbaijan last August aimed at ending decades of conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh. Washington has proposed that US-backed security personnel could oversee the narrow transport strip along Armenia’s border with Iran, a possibility Western intelligence officials said Moscow views as unacceptable, Reuters reported.

A recent analysis by Chatham House described the June 7 vote as “one of Armenia’s most pivotal elections since regaining independence in 1991,” with voters effectively deciding whether to continue moving away from Russia’s sphere of influence.

European engagement with Armenia has also intensified. Armenia hosted a European Political Community summit in Yerevan this year and has deepened cooperation with the European Union on governance, trade and security issues.

Russia, however, retains significant economic leverage over Armenia despite the political estrangement. In recent weeks Moscow has warned Armenia that it risks losing access to cheap Russian gas supplies. Russian authorities have also imposed restrictions on imports of Armenian products including flowers, fruit, vegetables, mineral water, wine and brandy. 

Russia’s agricultural safety watchdog Rosselkhoznadzor announced temporary restrictions on several Armenian agricultural imports beginning May 30, citing phytosanitary concerns. The measures followed earlier restrictions imposed on May 22 and were announced shortly before the election, fuelling accusations in Armenia that Moscow is attempting to apply economic pressure on voters.

Despite mounting tensions, Russia remains Armenia’s largest trading partner and dominant energy supplier. Gazprom Armenia, a subsidiary of Russian energy giant Gazprom, controls domestic gas distribution, while remittances from Armenians working in Russia remain a crucial source of income for many households.

Moscow’s preferred candidate in the election is billionaire businessman Samvel Karapetyan, according to three Western officials quoted by Reuters.

Karapetyan, an Armenian-Russian businessman whose Strong Armenia alliance is polling behind Pashinyan’s Civil Contract party, is currently on trial on charges of calling for the overthrow of the government. He denies the allegations.

Recent polling suggests Pashinyan remains the frontrunner despite growing public frustration following the loss of Nagorno-Karabakh.

A survey conducted earlier this month by MPG LLC, the Armenian member of the Gallup International Association, put Civil Contract on 28.8% support, ahead of Strong Armenia on 14.9% and the Hayastan alliance on 12.1%.

Another poll cited by Reuters placed Pashinyan’s party at around 30%, with Karapetyan’s bloc trailing near 6%.

The campaign has become increasingly polarised, marked by hostile confrontations between government supporters and opposition activists, as well as allegations of intimidation.